Author: Ramsay Capital Group

Falling bond yields–spurred by weak economic data–helped lift stocks to weekly gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.43%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 2.50%. The Nasdaq Composite index increased 3.25% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, picked up 2.71%.^1,2,3

Stocks Rise on Slowing Economy

Investor sentiment turned positive last week as signs of economic softness were interpreted as reason for the Fed to hold off on further rate hikes. A downward revision of Q2 economic growth and fresh signs of a cooling labor market reversed the recent rise in bond yield. They helped trigger a stock bounceback following Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole the previous Friday.

It wasn’t all about bad news being viewed as good news, though. A series of solid earnings reports, an announcement by one mega-cap tech name introducing pricing for its AI tools, and fresh inflation data–in-line with market expectations–further boosted enthusiasm for stocks.

Signs of Labor Cooling

Despite historic monetary tightening, the labor market has exhibited remarkable resilience, but last week’s employment data showed a cooling trend.

Job openings declined to their lowest level since March 2021, though they remained above pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, a survey of private sector hiring showed a slowdown in hiring, with employers adding 177,000 jobs in August–below the 371,000 added in July and short of economists’ forecast of 200,000.^4,5

Finally, the government’s monthly employment report showed the number of nonfarm payroll gains continued to decelerate in August, while June and July estimates were revised lower by 110,000.⁶

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 25, 2023}
2. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 25, 2023}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 25, 2023}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 29, 2023.}
5. ^{CNBC, August 30, 2023.}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 1, 2023.}

Starting a new business? Here’s a tip that the Internal Revenue Service shares for new business owners:

Choose an appropriate business structure: The form of business determines which income tax return a business taxpayer needs to file.

If necessary, apply for an Employer Identification Number (EIN): An EIN is used to identify a business structure outside a personal identification number.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁴

Footnotes and Sources

4. ^{IRS.gov, March 1, 2023}

Stocks fluctuated last week, jostled by fitful bond yields and headline news, before ending strongly following Fed Chair Powell’s comments on the monetary outlook.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.45%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 0.82%. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 2.26% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, added 0.78%.^1,2,3

Stocks Manage Gains

Stock rallied on Monday on upbeat sentiment over the earnings release from a mega-cap semiconductor company scheduled for mid-week, only to see that momentum fizzle the following day on weak retail earnings and a credit downgrade of a handful of banks.

Stocks resumed their rally on weak economic data, which fueled hopes for future Fed dovishness. They also rose on expectations that earnings from a leading AI chipmaker would validate the AI narrative that propelled markets in the second quarter. Despite a blowout earnings report, stocks turned lower as investor attention quickly switched to Fed Chair Powell’s presentation scheduled for Friday.

After some initial jitteriness, Investors responded well to Powell’s comments, posting gains to close the week.

Powell Stands Firm

Powell spoke on Friday at the Fed’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, asserting that, despite considerable progress, inflation remained too high and additional rate hikes may be in the offing. He acknowledged that previous rate increases had not yet thoroughly worked their way through the system, so caution about further hikes was needed.

Investors reacted to Powell’s comments far better than in August 2022, when a hawkish presentation sent stocks lower. Powell also addressed a growing feeling among investors that the Fed may eventually raise its inflation target to 2.5-3.0%. Powell rejected this idea unambiguously, stating that the two percent target would remain the Fed’s inflation goal.

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 25, 2023}
2. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 25, 2023}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 25, 2023}

There’s no better time than the present to check your withholding status and make sure your paycheck accurately reflects the taxes you should be paying.

These paycheck checkups are a great practice when something happens in your life that may change your tax status, such as getting married or getting divorced, having a baby, getting a new job, or getting a raise or promotion at work. You can also adjust your withholding status if you want to change how much tax you withhold due to other circumstances.

During your paycheck checkup, you can also check other factors, such as how much you contribute to your health insurance or retirement plan. These expenses can also impact your tax liability.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁶

Footnotes and Sources

6. ^{IRS.gov, April 10, 2023} 

Stocks extended their August declines last week as higher yields and weak economic data out of China soured investor sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.21%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 retreated 2.11%. The Nasdaq Composite index backtracked 2.59% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slumped 2.83%.^1,2,3

Stocks Wilt

Rising bond yields, driven primarily by strong economic data and the release of the minutes from July’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that pointed toward Fed officials’ potential need to raise rates further, weighed on stocks throughout the week.

In a week of light trading typical of August, stocks were additionally buffeted by a string of economic data that painted a flailing economic recovery in China and warnings of potential downgrades of dozens of U.S. banks by Fitch, a credit-rating agency.

After the 10-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since October 2022 on Thursday, yields eased on Friday, helping to arrest the week’s downward trend.⁴

Retail Sales Surprise

Retail sales jumped 0.7% in July, the fourth-consecutive month of increasing consumer spending on goods. The report supported the growing narrative that the U.S. may be able to avoid a recession in the near term. The strong spending data, supported by a robust labor market, also may have placed the Fed in a more difficult position in trying to bring inflation down to its target rate without more rate hikes.⁵ 

Consumer spending was higher in most categories, including bars and restaurants, grocery and hardware stores, and back-to-school items like books and clothing. Sales of autos and electronics fell, a possible consequence of higher borrowing costs.⁵

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 18, 2023}
2. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 18, 2023}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 18, 2023}
4. ^{CNBC, August 18, 2023}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 15, 2023}

Child support payments are not taxable income for the recipient or tax-deductible for the payer. Therefore, you should not include child support payments when calculating gross income for tax purposes.

On the other hand, alimony payments may be taxable income for the recipient and tax-deductible for the payer depending on the specific divorce or separation instrument. For divorce or separation instruments executed on or before December 31, 2018, alimony payments are generally taxable income for the recipient and tax-deductible for the payer. However, for divorce or separation instruments executed after December 31, 2018, or those executed before that date but later modified to repeal the deduction for alimony expressly, the payments are neither taxable income nor tax-deductible. In either case, when determining gross income for tax purposes, alimony payments received should be included or excluded based on the specific instrument.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁶

Footnotes and Sources

6. ^{IRS.gov, November 1, 2022} 

Positive inflation data failed to lift stocks from their August doldrums last week as economic data and a ratings downgrade soured investor sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.62%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 slipped 0.31%. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 1.90% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 0.50%.^1,2,3

Tech Weighs on Stocks

Stocks struggled last week, beginning on a strong note ahead of key inflation data and selling off mid-week in response to a downgrade of the banking sector by credit rating agency Moody’s and news of a steep drop in China’s exports. Emblematic of the week, stocks jumped to big gains following Thursday’s better-than-expected inflation report, only to evaporate as bond yields rose amid an auction of 30-year Treasury bonds.

Stocks have had difficulty sustaining traction with the loss of the technology’s leadership, which has propelled gains this year. The combination of higher yields and earnings that failed to validate tech’s elevated valuations has dragged the sector and the larger market.

Subdued Inflation

July’s inflation data reflected only moderate price pressures. Consumer prices increased by a modest 0.2%, which aligned with market expectations. In comparison, the annual inflation rate came in at 3.2%, slightly below consensus estimates–though higher than June’s annual increase of 3.0%. Core CPI (excludes food and energy) was particularly encouraging, rising at the slowest rate since October 2021.⁴

Producer prices painted a more mixed picture, coming in a bit higher than expected, rising 0.3% versus the expected 0.2% increase, though the year-over-year increase was just 0.8%. Core producer prices’ 12-month increase of 2.4% tied for the lowest since January 2021.⁵

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2023}
2. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2023}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2023}
4. ^{CNBC, August 10, 2023}
5. ^{CNBC, August 11, 2023}

On your tax return, add the Social Security Numbers for your children and other dependents. Otherwise, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) might deny any dependent credits you might be due, including the Child Tax Credit.

If you don’t have the number you need by the tax filing deadline, the IRS suggests filing for an extension rather than sending in a return without a Social Security number.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁷

Footnotes and Sources

7. ^{IRS.gov, October 7, 2022}

Stocks retreated last week as bond yields increased following the Treasury’s announcement indicating “a larger-than-expected funding need” and a downgrade in the federal government’s debt rating.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.11%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 shed 2.27%. The Nasdaq Composite index lost 2.85% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, tumbled 3.27%.^1,2,3

Stocks Struggle

Stocks struggled as investor sentiment turned cautious amid rising bond yields. Markets were rattled initially by news that the Treasury raised its borrowing requirement for the third quarter by more than a quarter of a trillion dollars and on news that the Bank of Japan announced it would allow bond yields to rise after years of capping them.

Rising yields continued to pressure stocks in the wake of a surprise rating downgrade of U.S. government debt by a major credit rating agency due to its belief in expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years.

Stocks rebounded Friday morning, rising on modest employment data only to reverse and add to the week’s losses.

Mixed Signals from the Labor Market

Fresh employment data last week gave some conflicting signals about the labor market. A new JOLTS (Job Openings and Turnover Survey) report showed a small decline in job openings and layoffs in June, leaving 1.6 job openings for each available worker.⁴

Automated Data Processing’s (ADP) employment report reflected strong private sector hiring with a 324,000 increase in jobs, exceeding the consensus forecast of a 175,000 gain.⁵

The government’s monthly employment report saw a cooling in hiring as employers added 187,000 jobs in July. This was slower than seen in the first six months but enough to shave the unemployment rate from 3.6% to 3.5%.⁶

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 4, 2023}
2. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 4, 2023}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 4, 2023}
4. ^{CNBC, August 1, 2023}
5. ^{CNBC, August 2, 2023}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 4, 2023}

Let’s outline who the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) defines as a qualifying person under this care credit:

• A taxpayer’s dependent who is under the age of 13 when the care is provided.
• A taxpayer’s spouse who cannot care for themselves has lived with the taxpayer for more than half the year.

In addition to spouses and dependents, the credit may also cover someone who is mentally or physically unable to care for themselves and lives with the taxpayer for six months. This is the case if that person was the taxpayer’s dependent or if they would have been the taxpayer’s dependent except for one of the following:

• The qualifying person received a gross income of $4,400 or more.
• The qualifying person filed a joint return.
• If filing jointly, the taxpayer or spouse could be claimed as dependent on someone else’s return.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁷

Footnotes and Sources

7. ^{IRS.gov, May 1, 2023}