Author: Ramsay Capital Group

Stocks roared higher last week, powered by upbeat trade news and tame inflation reports.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 5.27 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index spiked 7.15 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 3.41 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased 0.80 percent.^1,2

S&P, Dow Erase YTD Losses

Stocks pushed higher on Monday as investors cheered weekend news that the U.S. and China temporarily agreed to back off steep reciprocal tariffs.³

Then, a mild inflation report for April—the slowest annualized Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading in four years—boosted markets on Tuesday. Tech stocks powered the rally as the S&P 500 closed trading in the green for the year.^4,5

Markets closed the week with modest gains, largely looking past weak consumer sentiment data released on Friday.

Friday was the Dow’s turn to erase year-to-date losses and get back in the green while the Nasdaq and S&P notched a five-day winning streak.⁶

All Eyes on Economic Data

The retail (CPI) and wholesale inflation reports (Producer Price Index) were mild, although most economists didn’t expect tariffs to impact prices in the first month of implementation.

Retail sales ticked up slightly (as expected), while industrial production and housing starts showed signs of tariff impact.^7,8

Expect traders to continue to closely watch economic reports to better understand whether tariffs are showing up in the data.

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, May 16, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, May 16, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, May 12, 2025}
4. ^{WSJ.com,  May 13, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, May 15, 2025}
6. ^{MarketWatch.com, May 16, 2025}
7. ^{WSJ.com, May 13, 2025}
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, May 16, 2025}

Stocks were mixed last week as volatility dropped despite ongoing trade concerns and the Federal Reserve’s update on short-term rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.16 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.47 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 0.27 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 0.37 percent.^1,2

Stocks Go Sideways

Stocks dropped on Monday, ending the S&P 500’s 9-day winning streak as the trade anxiety weighed on investors.^3,4

Sentiment picked up midweek, however. In a widely expected move, the Fed held short-term interest rates steady but warned of lingering uncertainty around tariffs’ effects on inflation and unemployment.^5,6

On Thursday, the U.S.-U.K. trade deal sparked a slight rally, but stocks flattened as the week ended. Investors appeared to be risk-averse with U.S.-China trade talks scheduled for the weekend.⁷

The Fed Fans Out

The Federal Reserve wanted to get its message out last week. Within 48 hours of the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, nearly every Fed governor gave a solo speech or discussed the decision on a panel.

One Fed official spoke about the benefits of long-term stability from an independent Fed. At the same time, another said the Fed was paying close attention to what consumers did—and not just what they said, suggesting that flagging consumer sentiment didn’t necessarily mean a slowdown in spending.⁷

The Fed seemed to focus on managing expectations. Perhaps more importantly, Fed officials spoke from a coordinated playbook, possibly designed to help settle financial markets.

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, May 9, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, May 9, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, May 5, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, May 6, 2025}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, May 7, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, May 8, 2025}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, May 9, 2025}

Stocks pushed higher last week as investors cheered the White House’s constructive comments on trade, upbeat Q1 corporate reports, and an encouraging jobs report.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 2.92 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 3.42 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 3.00 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, advanced 2.56 percent.^1,2

Longest Winning Streak in 20 Years

During the first two trading days, stocks increased as investors responded favorably to White House comments on tariff deals.³

Then midweek—on the last day of the month—fresh data showed the economy contracted by 0.3 percent in Q1—the first decline in gross domestic product (GDP) in three years. Stocks initially fell on the news, but staged a stunning recovery to add a seventh day to the S&P 500’s and Dow Industrial’s winning streaks.⁴

Q1 corporate reports from a couple of mega-cap tech companies boosted all three major averages over the next session, with Nasdaq leading the rise. By Thursday’s close, Nasdaq had returned to its pre-April 2 levels.⁵

The rally accelerated on Friday as a better-than-expected April jobs report eased some concerns about the economy’s strength. Signs of a potential thaw in Washington-Beijing trade relations also boosted enthusiasm. The Dow Industrials rose for a ninth straight session, as did the S&P 500—its longest winning streak in 20 years.⁶

Solid Jobs Report

The April jobs report showed employers added 177,000 jobs last month—34,000 more than economists expected.

The report quieted talk about a recession, which was welcomed news. The April figure also showed the economy was still adding jobs despite a sluggish Q1 GDP report. However, the strong report did prompt some traders to push out expectations for an interest rate adjustment until the Fed’s July meeting.^7,8

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, May 2, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, May 2, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, April 29, 2025}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, May 1, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, May 2, 2025}
7. ^{MarketWatch.com, May 2, 2025}
8. ^{CNBC.com, May 2, 2025}

Stocks pushed higher last week, spurred by the White House’s reassuring comments that progress was being made with trade talks.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 4.59 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index picked up 6.73 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, adding 2.48 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased by 2.86 percent.^1,2

Markets Rally

Markets opened the week lower as investors continued to fret about China trade tensions. But sentiment quickly shifted.3

Stocks rebounded Tuesday following news that the administration intended to de-escalate tensions with China over tariffs. The rally extended through two more consecutive sessions as investors responded favorably to reassuring comments from the administration.

Markets also were encouraged after the president said he had “no intention” of firing the Fed Chair Powell. They also liked hearing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments that the U.S. had an “opportunity for a big deal” with a key trading partner.^4,5

Megacap tech stocks, which had been under pressure for several weeks, regained momentum during the week, leading the market’s advance.^6,7

Housing Market Update

Fresh housing data released last week showed the median price for a newly constructed home ($403,600) and an existing home ($403,700) were virtually identical in March.

This is unusual.

Typically, the average new home costs more than the average existing home. But last month, the median new-home price while the median existing-home price rose and hit a new all-time high.⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 25, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, April 25, 2025}
3. ^{MarketWatch.com, April 21, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, April 22, 2025}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, April 24, 2025}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 25, 2025} 
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, April 24, 2025}

Stocks ended the week with a strong gain as traders continued to focus on tariff talks while appearing to overlook upbeat news on inflation.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 5.70 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 7.29 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 4.95 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased by 0.72 percent.^1,2

Stocks Rebound

Stocks rallied on Monday after a report surfaced that the administration was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs. But when the White House clarified its position, sellers stepped in.

On Tuesday, prices jumped at the next opening bell after the Treasury Secretary said the U.S. was open to tariff negotiations with trading partners. The rally stalled and reversed on news the administration was adjusting tariffs on Chinese imports.³

After the White House announced a 90-day pause on specific tariffs on Wednesday, markets pushed higher. The S&P 500 gained 9.5 percent, its largest one-day increase in 17 years.⁴

Stocks fell again Thursday morning, appearing to overlook an upbeat Consumer Price Index report showing that core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose at a 2.8 percent annual rate–the best number in more than four years. Stocks finished the week with a powerful rally, capping a volatile trading week.^5,6.

Watching the Bond Market

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose more than 50 basis points for the week, marking one of the most significant moves on record. (When bond yields increase, bond prices tend to move lower.)

The week’s action was unexpected. In the past, investors have turned to U.S. bonds during market turbulence. However, the ongoing tariff talks have, at least temporarily, influenced how some overseas investors view U.S. bonds.^7,8

The bond market activity influenced the mortgage market, where the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage closed Friday at 7.1 percent, its highest level in two months.⁹

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 11, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, April 11, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, April 8, 2025}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 9, 2025}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 10, 2025}
6. ^{MarketWatch.com, April 11, 2025}
7. ^{WSJ.com, April 9, 2025}
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, April 9, 2025}
9. ^{CNBC.com, April 11, 2025}