Weekly Market Insights

Stocks were mixed last week as investors navigated Q4 corporate results, a widely expected Fed decision, and a handful of economic reports.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.34 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index edged down 0.17 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.42 percent. By contrast, the MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 1.22 percent.^1,2

S&P 500 Touches 7,000

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq advanced early in the week as investors looked ahead to the Fed meeting and corporate results from several large companies.^3,4

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates steady, as widely expected. Market reaction was muted, with all three major averages little changed by the close. Disappointing earnings results from one megacap tech firm, announced after the market closed on Wednesday, unsettled investors and dragged the Nasdaq down on Thursday.^5,6

Stocks opened lower Friday, after the White House nominated Fed veteran Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. A warmer-than-expected December wholesale inflation report and concerns about a government shutdown added to bearish investor sentiment as the week wrapped up.⁷

The Fed Holds Steady

The Fed funds rate was held at its current 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent target range at its January meeting. The decision followed three consecutive meetings at which the Fed cut rates; it marked the first time the Fed held rates steady since July. The next Fed meeting is in mid-March.⁸

At the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Powell did not answer any questions regarding the Justice Department’s investigation. The January 19, 2026, issue of Weekly Market Insights misstated the status of the investigation concerning the Fed Chair by referring to it as an indictment. We regret any confusion.

Footnotes And Sources

<sup>1. WSJ.com, January 30, 2026
2. Investing.com, January 30, 2026
3. CNBC.com, January 26, 2026
4. CNBC.com, January 27, 2026
5. CNBC.com, January 28, 2026
6. WSJ.com, January 29, 2026
7. CNBC.com, January 30, 2026
8. WSJ.com, January 28, 2026</sup>

Stocks ended last week with modest losses after a volatile five days of market-moving economic data, geopolitics, and Fed drama.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.38 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index skidded 0.66 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.29 percent. By contrast, the MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 1.41 percent.^1,2

Choppy Trading 

Stocks started the week lower after pre-opening bell news that the Justice Department had launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. A statement issued Tuesday morning by central bankers worldwide helped tamp down market volatility.^3,4

The White House called for a 10 percent cap on credit card interest rates for 1 year, putting pressure on financial stocks. Meanwhile, news that headline inflation matched forecasts while core inflation came in cooler than expected was well received by investors.^5,6

Despite solid retail sales and wholesale inflation reports for November, stocks were under pressure on Wednesday due to geopolitical tensions and disappointing Q4 results from a handful of financial stocks.⁷

Then chip manufacturers and banks led a rebound, recouping most of the week’s losses. Markets opened higher on Friday but then slid after the president backtracked on his preferred candidate to be the next Fed Chair. His comments led investors to believe that his new choice would be more market-friendly but perhaps less likely to adjust interest rates.⁸

Fed Drama

Tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve escalated last week after the Justice Department issued a criminal indictment against Fed Chair Powell.

Powell, typically calm and collected in the face of criticism, posted an assertive video Sunday night. By the close of the week, however, investors seemed to have moved past the Fed drama as there was plenty of other news to follow.

Footnotes And Sources

<sup>1. WSJ.com, January 16, 2026
2. Investing.com, January 16, 2026
3. CNBC.com, January 12, 2026
4. WSJ.com, January 12, 2026
5. WSJ.com, January 13, 2026
6. WSJ.com, January 13, 2026
7. CNBC.com, January 14, 2026
8. CNBC.com, January 16, 2026</sup>

Stocks posted solid gains in an action-packed week of market-moving economic data, geopolitical news, and bullish new year sentiment.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.57 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added 1.88 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.32 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, advanced 1.41 percent.^1,2

Santa Visits Dow, But Not S&P, Nasdaq

Stocks rose early Monday, led by the Dow Industrials, as investors looked past the news from Venezuela.

By Monday’s close, the Dow Industrials had gained enough to make the “Santa Claus Rally” a reality, pushing the Average to a 1.1 percent gain for the seven-session period (the last five trading days of 2025 and the first two of 2026). However, the S&P and Nasdaq came up short.³

All three major averages continued their rise through midweek as the AI trade—led by chip manufacturers—helped momentum. The Dow Industrials crossed the 49,000 level for the first time, and both the S&P 500 and Dow hit record closes as well as all-time intraday highs.⁴

The Dow then moved back into the “pole position” over the next session as investors appeared to rotate out of technology stocks and into other sectors, including cyclical stocks. Defense stocks got a boost from the president’s call for a $1.5 trillion annual defense budget in 2027—higher than the Pentagon’s target.^5,6

The December jobs report, released on Friday, showed modest job gains and a slight decline in the unemployment rate. Investors cheered the news, believing the update gave the Fed some flexibility with rates at its January meeting.⁷

Jobs Report

The Labor Department’s latest employment report showed a net gain of 50,000 jobs last month while unemployment ticked down to 4.4 percent, missing economists’ expectations of 73,000 jobs.⁷

Over the full year, net job growth averaged 49,000 per month—the lowest monthly pace in 22 years and a drop from 168,000 per month in 2024. Federal job cuts were a primary reason for the sluggish labor market in 2025, with 277,000 government positions eliminated.⁷

Footnotes And Sources

<sup>1. WSJ.com, January 9, 2026
2. Investing.com, January 9, 2026
3. CNBC.com, January 5, 2026
4. CNBC.com, January 6, 2026
5. CNBC.com, January 7, 2026
6. WSJ.com, January 8, 2026
7. CNBC.com, January 9, 2026</sup>

Stocks trended lower last week amid signs of year-end profit-taking and some sour investor sentiment over the Fed meeting minutes.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.03 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 1.52 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.67 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, ticked up 0.31 percent.^1,2

Santa Rally, Interrupted

Stocks opened lower to start the shortened holiday week with tech shares under pressure. Markets then moved sideways, but came under pressure after minutes from the December Federal Reserve meeting were released. Investors digested the details, which showed members remained divided.^3,4

Stocks recovered some ground on the first trading day of 2026. The tech sector was mixed, with AI chip stocks pushing higher, while other areas of technology, especially software companies, declined. Overall, the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials logged gains to kick off the new year, which helped pair losses from earlier in the week.^5,6

It remains to be seen whether the “Santa Claus rally”, which ends Monday, January 5, will materialize. The Santa period is the last five trading days of December through the first two trading days of the new year.

Focus on the Fed

There was little economic data last week, leaving investors to focus mostly on the minutes from the Fed’s December meeting. The minutes, released Tuesday, revealed a divided Federal Open Market Committee regarding short-term interest rates. The news unsettled investors a bit, which led to some selling pressure.⁷

A divided Fed has been a persistent theme during the second half of 2025, and investors will closely watch in 2026 to see whether the Fed’s outlook may change with the appointment of a new Fed Chair.

Footnotes And Sources

<sup>1 .WSJ.com, January 2, 2026
2. Investing.com, January 2, 2026
3. CNBC.com, December 29, 2025
4. WSJ.com, December 30, 2025
5. CNBC.com, December 31, 2025
6. CNBC.com, January 2, 2026
7. CNBC.com, December 30, 2025</sup>

Stocks delivered for investors last week as positive economic data and bullish holiday cheer powered the start of a “Santa Claus rally” past consumer bah humbug sentiment.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.40 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 1.22 percent. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.20 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, moved ahead 1.16 percent.^1,2

AI Stock Sleigh Delivers

Stocks rallied at the start of the week, riding pre-holiday momentum as artificial intelligence (AI) related technology names continued to drive gains.³

Fresh data out Tuesday initially quashed market momentum, reflecting investor concern that the stronger-than-expected Q3 economic growth might dissuade the Fed from adjusting interest rates in 2026.

But those fears appeared to subside after a Fed official said the U.S. is “way behind the curve in terms of lowering rates” compared with other central banks around the world. Those comments, combined with continued momentum and market leadership from the AI trade, boosted sentiment and lifted the S&P 500 to a record close despite a fresh consumer confidence reading that missed expectations.⁴

Christmas Eve brought more of the same, kicking off what’s known as the “Santa Claus rally” period—the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new year. The S&P hit new intraday and closing highs on Wednesday’s shortened trading day—its fifth consecutive session of gains.⁵

While stocks largely went sideways on Friday amid thin holiday volume. The S&P 500 hit another intraday high, and all three major averages posted weekly gains. It was the S&P’s fourth weekly gain in five weeks.⁶

GDP Jumps

The delayed Q3 gross domestic product report was released on Tuesday, showing that the economy grew at an annualized 4.3 percent rate. That number beat expectations by more than a full percentage point and marked the strongest economic growth in two years.⁷

While it didn’t garner many headlines, another metric released on the same day told a similar story. Industrial production grew 2.5 percent year over year in November—the highest annualized increase since September 2022 and nearly triple what it was at the start of 2025.⁸

Footnotes And Sources

1. <sup>WSJ.com, December 26, 2025
   2. Investing.com, December 26, 2025
   3. CNBC.com, December 22, 2025
   4. CNBC.com, December 23, 2025
   5. CNBC.com, December 24, 2025
   6. CNBC.com, December 26, 2025
   7. WSJ.com, December 23, 2025
   8. KPMG.com, December 23, 2025</sup>

Heightened volatility was on Wall Street’s mind last week, as investors continued to focus on valuations of artificial intelligence (AI) stocks.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.95 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 2.74 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.91 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slumped 3.25 percent.^1,2

AI Valuation Worries 

Stocks slid over the first half of the week as anticipation continued to build for Q3 results from one of the largest AI megacap tech stocks, due out midweek.

While the decline was led by megacap tech stocks, which typically drag down both the Nasdaq and S&P 500, the Dow Industrials also fell. With the government still playing catch-up on a backlog of economic reports following the shutdown, investors kept a close eye on big consumer-related stocks for insights into the economy.³

Then midweek, all three major averages rebounded, with the S&P snapping a four-day losing streak. Sentiment improved as investors turned more positive about another AI firm’s quarterly report due out after Wednesday’s closing bell.⁴

That firm’s results helped boost stocks after the opening bell on Thursday, but prices retreated quickly as investor anxiety built over whether the Fed would adjust rates next month. The Fed’s October meeting minutes revealed divisions among the Committee’s voting members. Additionally, the Labor Department’s September jobs report painted a mixed employment picture, which might complicate the Fed’s decision.⁵

Stocks rebounded on Friday after New York Fed President John Williams seemed to reassure investors that a rate adjustment at the Fed’s December meeting was still a possibility. The bounce was jagged, as the rebound had to battle through disappointing economic data on consumer sentiment and manufacturing activity.⁶

More Jobs, but Higher Jobless Rate

The delayed September jobs report came out last week, and showed employers added 119,000 jobs—the strongest monthly gain since April and a rebound from August’s loss of 4,000 jobs (which was later revised to a 22,000 gain). The jobs report was among the first post-shutdown reports to be published by the Labor Department.

The unemployment rate in September rose to 4.4 percent, higher than the 4.3 percent economists expected. It was the highest number in four years.

This was the Labor Department’s last monthly employment report before the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on December 9-10.⁷

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, November 21, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, November 21, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, November 18, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, November 19, 2025}  
5. ^{WSJ.com, November 20, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, November 21, 2025}
7. ^{WSJ.com, November 20, 2025}

Stocks ended mixed after a nail-biting week for investors, who grew anxious over megacap tech valuations and interest rates as the government shutdown came to an end.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index edged up 0.08 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 0.45 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.34 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, advanced 1.63 percent.^1,2

Rotating into Value

The week began with stocks rising, fueled by hopes that the longest-ever government shutdown could soon end as a federal funding bill moved closer to Congressional approval. Building on these early gains, the Nasdaq advanced more than 2 percent and the S&P 500 added 1½ percent.³

Stocks rose at the opening bell on Tuesday following news that the Senate had passed a bill to end the shutdown, but sentiment quickly turned as tech stocks pulled down the Nasdaq and S&P. Meanwhile, the Dow rose modestly. However, by midday, sentiment shifted positively, and the Dow and S&P 500 closed in the green.⁴

Midweek, growing conviction that the government would reopen continued to push the Dow Industrials higher. As a result, the Dow achieved its first record close above 48,000, with the S&P remaining flat and the Nasdaq slipping. Once the government reopened Thursday morning, attention quickly turned to tech valuations and an earnings miss from a large entertainment conglomerate. This shift also prompted investors to worry whether the Fed would adjust interest rates next month. Despite a brief dip as the week concluded, markets stabilized, with the Nasdaq and S&P recovering near the flatline, while the Dow lagged slightly.^5,6,7

Restarting the Data Engine

It takes time to get a tanker ship up and running again after a full stop. That’s what the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is doing now, as the government stats engine resumes.

Using the last government shutdown (in 2013) as a baseline, about half of the BLS reports that have not yet been published could be ready by the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on December 9-10. The remainder of the backlogged reports (including October reports) are estimated to be published on a rolling basis through mid-January.⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, November 14, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, November 14, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, November 10, 2025}  
4. ^{CNBC.com, November 11, 2025} 
5. ^{CNBC.com, November 12, 2025}
6. ^{WSJ.com, November 13, 2025}
7. ^{CNBC.com, November 14, 2025}
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, November 11, 2025}

Stocks hit a rough patch last week as fresh labor market data, low consumer sentiment, and the ongoing government shutdown unnerved investors.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 1.63 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 3.04 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.21 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, edged down 0.83 percent.^1,2

Nasdaq’s Toughest Week Since April

Stocks started the week mixed. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose modestly, while the Dow Industrials fell.^3,4

Markets stabilized midweek after an ADP jobs report showed stronger-than-expected hiring by private employers in October. The report buoyed investor sentiment, pushing all three major averages higher.⁵

However, stocks fell as investor concerns over stock valuations persisted, particularly among companies related to AI. Following a well-known outplacement firm’s report of a steep increase in corporate layoffs, selling pressure intensified as investors continued to react to data updates from alternative sources in the absence of official government data.

Stocks slid again on Friday after news that consumer sentiment hit its lowest level in three years. The survey data appeared to exacerbate investor nerves about the reading’s connection to a fragile labor market and the impacts of the government shutdown.

But all three major averages then began a recovery rally midday Friday, with the S&P and Dow Industrials climbing back into the green and the Nasdaq regaining nearly all of its losses by the closing bell.⁶

Labor Market Paradox

Payroll processing company ADP’s monthly employment report has become a prominent alternative source for jobs data in the wake of the government shutdown. However, it doesn’t always tell the whole story.

ADP’s latest jobs report showed private employers hired at a much stronger pace than expected in October. U.S. companies added 42,000 jobs in October, nearly double the 22,000 new jobs economists expected. Given that 29,000 jobs went away in September, the October figure was welcome news for investors; it was also the first increase in three months. The bulk of the job gains came from the trade, transportation, utilities, education, and health sectors.⁷

Other data out last week told a different story. Another report showed layoff announcements in October hit a 22-year high for the month, making this year the worst for layoffs since 2009.^8,9

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, November 7, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, November 7, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, November 3, 2025}  
4. ^{CNBC.com, November 4, 2025} 
5. ^{WSJ.com, November 5, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, November 7, 2025}
7. ^{WSJ.com, November 5, 2025}
8. ^{CNBC.com, November 6, 2025}
9. ^{CNBC.com, November 7, 2025}

Stocks rose last week as trade developments, positive Q3 corporate results, and momentum in megacap tech drove another rally, despite some cautious comments from the Fed.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.71 percent, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index picked up 2.24 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.75 percent. By contrast, the MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 0.55 percent.^1,2

Stocks Up for Third Straight Week

Stocks rose over the first half of the week on news that Chinese and U.S. officials were working on a trade deal. Meanwhile, a rise in AI-related tech names lifted the broader market ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. All three major averages notched record closing highs for the first two days of the week, including the S&P 500 closing above 6800 for the first time.^3,4

Stocks continued their rise Wednesday morning as the AI trade continued to fuel momentum. But markets wobbled following the FOMC’s decision to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point. Chair Powell’s comments that the Fed may not adjust rates in December cut short the market’s rally.^5,6

Stocks bounced out of the gate on Friday, with the Nasdaq leading gains for all three major averages as several megacap tech companies rallied on upbeat Q3 results and other corporate news.⁷

‘Not a Foregone Conclusion’

As widely expected, the Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates by 0.25 percent. But as often happens for those trying to read the Fed tea leaves, it was the finer messaging points that moved the markets.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his post-meeting press conference that another rate adjustment in December was “not a foregone conclusion.” He added that Fed policy is “not on a pre-set course.” Part of that, he said, was due to the ongoing government shutdown and the resulting dearth of economic data—and the challenge in setting monetary policy without ongoing reports.⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, October 31, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, October 31, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, October 27, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, October 28, 2025}
5. ^{WSJ.com, October 29, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, October 30, 2025}
7. ^{CNBC.com, October 31, 2025}
8. ^{WSJ.com, October 29, 2025}

Stocks rose last week thanks to a full slate of upbeat third-quarter corporate results and mild inflation data, which helped soften concerns over trade tensions with China.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.92 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.31 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2.20 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 1.24 percent.^1,2

S&P, Dow Set New Highs on Friday

Stocks rose out of the gate as optimism returned to markets. Strength in the tech sector—and whispers of an imminent end to the government shutdown—pushed all three market averages higher.³

But the strong start turned mixed as some pressure on megacap tech stocks pulled down the Nasdaq. But while tech stocks regrouped, attention shifted to the Dow Industrials, which hit a record intraday high of 47,000 and a record close.⁴

Sentiment soured midweek as weaker-than-expected earnings results from two megacap tech companies dragged down technology names. Markets came under further pressure following news that the administration was considering restrictions on U.S.-made software exported to China. The S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all closed lower on Wednesday.⁵

But the mood brightened Thursday as more megacap tech companies announced strong Q3 results, and as the White House confirmed a scheduled meeting with China.

News on Friday that inflation rose more slowly than expected boosted all three averages. The S&P 500 and Dow Industrials hit all-time intraday and closing highs.⁶

Inflation Eases

The Consumer Price Index report, delayed due to the government shutdown, showed prices rose by 3.0 percent in September on an annualized basis, slightly cooler than the 3.1 percent forecast.

This news paved the way for the Fed to stick with its penciled-in rate cut at its two-day meeting, which ends on October 29.

In addition to the upbeat inflation news, Q3 corporate earnings–one of the key drivers of stock prices–have been beating expectations 80% of the time as of Friday.⁷

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, October 24, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, October 24, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, October 20, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, October 21, 2025} 
5. ^{CNBC.com, October 22, 2025}
6. ^{WSJ.com, October 24, 2025}
7. ^{WSJ.com, October 24, 2025}