Weekly Market Insights

Stocks were essentially unchanged last week as geopolitical tensions added some volatility to an otherwise quiet trading week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat (+0.09 percent), while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index ticked up 0.22 percent. The Nasdaq Composite also was flat (+0.10 percent). The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, was a bit more unsettled by the geopolitical events, dropping 3.74 percent.^1,2

Stocks Flat, Oil Spikes

Stocks posted modest gains on Monday, encouraged by upbeat comments in a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. However, the modest gains pushed the S&P 500 and Dow to fresh records.³

As Middle East tensions escalated on the first day of October, stocks fell, bond yields rose, and oil prices rose as the news unfolded.⁴

On Wednesday, all three averages were flat. An ADP report showed higher-than-expected private sector job growth—a metric investors focus on. Oil prices continued to rise as investors watched the developments in the Middle East.^5,6

Then, on Friday, stocks rallied after the Labor Department’s September jobs report topped expectations.⁷

Jobs Out Front

The Labor Department’s jobs report gave investors some much-welcomed insights into the jobs market. At its September meeting, the Fed indicated it was watching the jobs market as closely as inflation, so updates on the jobs market are now considered as important as inflation reports.⁸

The report showed employers added 254,000 jobs, about 100,000 more than economists expected. It also showed that unemployment ticked down to 4.1 percent last month.⁹

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, October 4, 2024}
2. ^{Investing.com, October 4, 2024}
3. ^{CNBC.com, September 30, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, October 1, 2024}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, October 2, 2024}
6. ^{The Financial Times, October 3, 2024}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, October 4, 2024}
8. ^{The Wall Street Journal, October 2, 2024}
9. ^{The Wall Street Journal, October 4, 2024}

Stocks moved higher last week, continuing to build on the momentum generated after the Federal Reserve decided to cut short-term rates by 0.50 percent.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.59 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.95 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.62 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained an eye-catching 3.53 percent.^1,2

Congress Passes Spending Bill

Stocks started the week tepidly but in the green, as investors mostly shrugged off Tuesday’s weak consumer confidence report. Then, at midweek, markets put on the brakes as investors appeared to take profits after a four-day winning streak.^3,4

On Thursday, markets rallied on news that the final Q2 gross domestic product estimate showed the economy increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent. Then Friday, the PCE, or Personal Consumption and Expenditures Index, showed inflation had cooled slightly more than expected in August, which some believe may influence the Fed’s decisions on short-term rates at its November meeting.⁵

Finally, a continuing resolution was passed by both houses of Congress last week and signed by President Biden Friday morning, assuaging concerns over a government shutdown. The resolution funds the government until December 20.⁶

China’s Stimulus Package

This week, the head-turning performance came from outside the U.S.

As measured by the MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, and Far East) Index, international stocks rose more than 3 percent following news of China’s stimulus package, which could be as much as 2 trillion yuan, or $284 billion. China’s program also cut banks’ reserve requirements and lowered a key short-term interest rate.

While the EAFE Index doesn’t track stocks from Mainland China, the stimulus package had far-reaching implications for other countries.^7,8

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 27, 2024}
2. ^{Investing.com, September 27, 2024}
3. ^{CNBC.com, September 24, 2024}
4. ^{CNBC.com, September 25, 2024}
5. ^{BEA.gov, September 26, 2024}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 22, 2024 OR
   The Hill, September 25, 2024}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 27, 2024}
8. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 27, 2023}

Stocks moved higher last week after the Federal Reserve’s half-point rate cut, bolstered by multiple data points supporting a cooling but still strong economy and decelerating inflation.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.36 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.49 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved ahead by 1.62 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, inched up 0.42 percent.^1,2

Fed Cuts Rate 0.5 Percent

Stocks traded in a narrow range for the first half of the week as anxious investors awaited the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) September meeting.^3,4

Shortly after 2 pm ET Wednesday, the Fed announced it was cutting rates by a half percentage point—a more significant cut than some investors anticipated. Stocks initially rose in response and then fell. Some market watchers attributed the decline to concern that the Fed might be concerned about economic growth.^5,6 

But after sleeping on it, stocks rallied Thursday, with the Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow climbing 2.5 percent, 1.7 percent, and 1.3 percent, respectively. The Dow topped 42,000 for the first time, while the S&P crossed the 5,700 mark.^7,8

Fed’s Move

The half-point cut was the first change in the Fed Funds Rate in 14 months and the first reduction in 4½ years, bringing its target range to 4.75-5.0 percent. Fed Chair Powell said the decision reflected the Committee’s “greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent” and that the “risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.”⁹

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 20, 2024}
2. ^{Investing.com, September 20, 2024}
3. ^{CNBC.com, September 16, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 18, 2024}
5. ^{CNBC.com, September 18, 2024}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 18, 2024}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 19, 2024}
8. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 20, 2024}
9. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 18, 2024}

Stocks rallied last week as investors received better-than-expected consumer and producer inflation data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.60 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 4.02 percent. The Nasdaq Composite led, picking up 5.95 percent as tech stocks rebounded. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 1.01 percent.^1,2

A Wednesday to Remember

Stocks bounced out of the gate at the start of the week as “risk on” investors made moves before the pending release of the twin inflation reports–the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). The three major averages added slightly more than 1 percent in Monday trading.³

On Wednesday, stocks initially dipped following the release of the CPI as traders appeared disappointed by the report. By midday, sentiment changed. The S&P 500, down as much as 1.6 percent in early trading, gained 1.1 percent by the closing bell. More inflation data out Thursday showed wholesale price increases were tempered, which helped stocks move higher through the balance of the week.^4,5

Small Caps Shine

Small-cap stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000 Index, have pushed higher in recent weeks, which is a telling move for some Wall Street observers. The Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 4 percent during Q3 so far.⁶

One reason is that smaller stocks tend to respond when they anticipate interest rates will trend lower. Investors appear to be positioning themselves in small cap issues, expecting the Fed may adjust rates at its September meeting as it looks to guide the economy to a soft landing.⁷

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 13, 2024}
2. ^{Investing.com, September 13, 2024}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 10, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 11, 2024}
5. ^{CNBC.com, September 12, 2024}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 13, 2024}
7. ^{MarketWatch.com, September 12, 2024}

Stocks fell last week as soft economic data rattled investors focused on the Fed’s next move with interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.93 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 4.25 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 5.77 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, declined 2.91 percent.^1,2

Economic Data Unsettles Investors

The four-day trading week got off to a rough start as weak manufacturing data reawakened recessionary fears. All three major averages were down for the first session after the Labor Day holiday. For many, it was reminiscent of August 5, when stocks tumbled as recession worries unsettled investors.³

Attention shifted to Friday’s jobs report as stocks traded narrowly. Markets initially reacted positively to news that job growth rebounded slightly and unemployment ticked down. However, selling pressure increased as the trading session progressed and investors digested the underlying data. The S&P 500 had its worst week since March 2023.⁴

Focus on Fed’s September Meeting

The Federal Reserve seems poised to make a tough decision regarding monetary policy in its September meeting. The jobs market and other softening economic data have quickly overshadowed concerns about inflation.

However, there’s still a case to be made for a soft landing.

Job growth in August was slower than expected, but 142,000 jobs were created–an uptick that some would argue is an overall positive despite missing expectations. The drop in the unemployment rate to 4.2 percent bolstered the soft-landing narrative.⁵

Market observers anticipate a 0.25 percent rate adjustment in September, but some contend that the Fed may consider a more significant move. On Friday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he was open to a larger move if necessary. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams commented similarly during the week.^6,7

Footnotes and Sources

 

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 6, 2024}
2. ^{Investing.com, August 30, 2024}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 3, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 6, 2024}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 6, 2024}
6. ^{Marketwatch.com, September 5, 2024}
7. ^{CNBC.com, September 6, 2024} 

There were mixed results for stocks last week as upbeat economic data and a critical Q2 corporate report shaped the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.94 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 0.24 percent. The Nasdaq Composite lagged, falling 0.92 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 0.35 percent.^1,2

Key Economic Data

Markets began the week quiet as investors awaited Q2 earnings from Nvidia, the world’s most influential name in artificial intelligence.

The chipmaker–the second largest stock in the S&P 500 by market capitalization–dipped on the news, putting pressure on the Nasdaq and S&P 500. (The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are market-weighted averages, so larger companies have an outsized impact.)³

Nvidia is mentioned to show its influence on the overall stock market. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the company.

On Thursday, an upward revision in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data boosted markets, although stocks fell later in the day. Friday’s Personal Consumption and Expenditures (PCE) data seemed to confirm that inflation remained tame, welcome news for investors who are anticipating the Fed may adjust rates in September.⁴

Softer Landing in Focus?

Several pieces of data helped build a narrative that the economy may be coming in for a soft landing.

Second-quarter GDP growth was revised upward, from 2.8 percent to 3.0 percent. That’s an improvement from Q1 GDP, which rose 1.4 percent. Some market watchers were concerned about the Q2 revision after pending home sales in July hit its lowest monthly level in 23 years.⁵

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE Index, came in 0.2 percent higher in July–in line with expectations. Core PCE inflation, which the Fed tracks closely, edged up 0.2 percent–also in line with forecasts.⁶

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 30, 2024}
2. ^{Investing.com, August 30, 2024}
3. ^{CNBC.com, August 28, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 30, 2024}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 29, 2024}
6. ^{CNBC.com, August 30, 2024}

Stocks notched a solid gain as dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials boosted the market’s recovery from early August lows.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.45 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite added 1.40 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 1.27 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 2.98 percent.^1,2

Dovish Week

Stocks started the week strong, rallying after Wall Street welcomed dovish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each posted gains on Monday–the 8th consecutive winning session. The Dow rose for the 5th session in a row.^3,4

From there, markets traded in a narrow band until Wednesday afternoon when minutes released from the July 30-31 FOMC Meeting revealed more dovish comments. On Thursday, stocks dipped ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming, speech.^5,6

Well-received comments from Powell on Friday boosted markets, with all three averages closing higher.⁷

“The Time has Come”

The Fed’s annual symposium for global central bankers started Friday morning with Fed Chair Powell’s much-anticipated speech. Citing the risk of the labor market cooling even further, he said, “the time has come for policy to adjust.”

Investors responded favorably, with the remaining question being how significant a rate cut might be. Powell kept that door open, adding that “the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 23, 2024}
2. ^{Investing.com, August 23, 2024}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 23, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 19, 2024}
5. ^{MarketWatch.com, August 22, 2024}
6. ^{Reuters.com, August 22, 2024}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 23, 2024}
8. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 23, 2024}

Stocks posted solid gains last week, buoyed by robust economic data and constructive comments from Fed officials.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 3.93 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 5.29 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged a bit, picking up 2.94 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, powered ahead by 4.31 percent.^1,2

Upbeat Economic News

Three critical economic data points gave investors what they were looking for: wholesale inflation, consumer prices, and retail sales.

Both the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index rose less than expected in July, reinforcing a picture of cooling inflation. The July retail sales report on Thursday was stronger than expected, which added more fuel to the week-long rally.^3,4,5

Market action slowed down on the week’s final trading day, with positive consumer sentiment gains countered only by a drop in housing starts.

It was the S&P 500’s best weekly gain of the year so far and the best since November of 2023. The gains helped erase losses from earlier in the month, when “carry trades” news from Japan unsettled investors.^6,7

Double Assist

Last week’s market rally saw assists from two places: economic data and constructive Fed comments.

On Thursday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he had “a lot more confidence that inflation’s sustainably on its way to 2%,” citing steady drops in CPI. And St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said, “the time may be nearing when an adjustment (to the Fed Funds Rate) may be appropriate.⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 16, 2024}
2. ^{Investing.com, August 16, 2024}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 13, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 14, 2024}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 15, 2024}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 16, 2024}
7. ^{CNBC.com, August 16, 2024}
8. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 15, 2024}

Stocks ended last week with modest losses, masking a volatile five-day trading period that saw investors embrace recession concerns and then dismiss the slow-down talk as speculation as the week progressed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.60 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index ended flat (-0.04 percent). The Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.18 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 1.21 percent.^1,2

Stocks Stage Comeback

Monday was the worst day for the S&P 500 and the Dow in nearly two years. As recession talk grew louder, investors took a “risk off” position.

On Monday, the Japanese market had its worst drop since 1987 as market participants unwound positions from a popular trading strategy called a “carry trade” amid a global sell-off in stock prices.³

But on Thursday, initial jobless claims fell less than expected—a positive sign for the labor markets— which quieted some of the recession talk. Also, as the week progressed, there was growing speculation that the July jobs report was more of an outlier than a lead indicator of a pending recession.

By Friday’s close, all three major averages had regained most of the week’s losses.⁴

Mortgage Update

Last Thursday, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped to 6.47 percent—a 15-month low. Many home buyers welcomed the news, and it appeared to help support Thursday’s rally.⁵

But the announcement left some wondering whether rates would continue to trend lower. Mortgage rates are tied to the interest rates set by the Federal Reserve. Some speculated the drop was due to market participants anticipating the Fed would adjust rates in September, which remains anything but certain.⁶

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 9, 2024}
2. ^{Investing.com, August 9, 2024}
3. ^{CNBC.com, August 5, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 8, 2024}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 8, 2024}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 9, 2024}

Stocks fell broadly last week as investors looked past upbeat Fed comments and focused on disappointing corporate reports and weaker-than-expected economic data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.20 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 2.06 percent. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 3.35 percent. By contrast, the MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 0.19 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.¹

Volatile Week of Trading

Stocks were under pressure early in the week as investors appeared to focus on the Fed’s meeting, which ended on Wednesday. It was a big week for Q2 corporate reports, with five of the ten largest names in the S&P 500 (by market capitalization) reporting numbers. But attention was mainly on the Fed’s meeting.^2,3

Stocks rallied on Wednesday when Fed Chair Powell indicated a September interest rate cut was “on the table.”⁴

But selling picked up on Thursday as investors’ attention quickly shifted to disappointing corporate reports and weak economic data. Friday morning’s disappointing June jobs report raised even more concerns about the economy’s strength. The Nasdaq ended the week in correction territory, down more than 10 percent from its recent all-time high.^5,6

Economic Concerns

Fresh economic data suggested weakening manufacturing, construction, and employment outlooks. On Friday, the Labor Department’s July jobs report showed a sharper-than-expected job growth slowdown and an unemployment uptick to 4.3 percent—the highest rate in 2½ years.

At Wednesday’s Fed press conference, investors welcomed Powell’s unusually candid and upbeat comments. However, as the week progressed, investors started questioning whether the Fed was misreading the economy and moving too slowly in adjusting interest rates.⁷

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 2, 2024}
2. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 2, 2024}
3. ^{S&P Global, July 31, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 31, 2024}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 1, 2024}
6. ^{CNBC.com, August 2, 2024}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 2, 2024}