Weekly Market Insights

Stocks fell broadly last week as investors looked past upbeat Fed comments and focused on disappointing corporate reports and weaker-than-expected economic data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.20 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 2.06 percent. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 3.35 percent. By contrast, the MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 0.19 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.¹

Volatile Week of Trading

Stocks were under pressure early in the week as investors appeared to focus on the Fed’s meeting, which ended on Wednesday. It was a big week for Q2 corporate reports, with five of the ten largest names in the S&P 500 (by market capitalization) reporting numbers. But attention was mainly on the Fed’s meeting.^2,3

Stocks rallied on Wednesday when Fed Chair Powell indicated a September interest rate cut was “on the table.”⁴

But selling picked up on Thursday as investors’ attention quickly shifted to disappointing corporate reports and weak economic data. Friday morning’s disappointing June jobs report raised even more concerns about the economy’s strength. The Nasdaq ended the week in correction territory, down more than 10 percent from its recent all-time high.^5,6

Economic Concerns

Fresh economic data suggested weakening manufacturing, construction, and employment outlooks. On Friday, the Labor Department’s July jobs report showed a sharper-than-expected job growth slowdown and an unemployment uptick to 4.3 percent—the highest rate in 2½ years.

At Wednesday’s Fed press conference, investors welcomed Powell’s unusually candid and upbeat comments. However, as the week progressed, investors started questioning whether the Fed was misreading the economy and moving too slowly in adjusting interest rates.⁷

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 2, 2024}
2. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 2, 2024}
3. ^{S&P Global, July 31, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 31, 2024}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 1, 2024}
6. ^{CNBC.com, August 2, 2024}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 2, 2024}

Stocks had a mixed, see-saw week as disappointing corporate reports unsettled investors who appeared to rotate away from some leading groups in favor of other names.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 0.75 percent. Meanwhile, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 0.83 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.08 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 1.49 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.¹

Q2 Corporate Reports Start

Last week began with some positive momentum, but after Tuesday’s close, two influential tech companies reported disappointing Q2 numbers, which soured sentiment. On Wednesday, the S&P dropped 2 percent, and the Nasdaq fell more than 3 percent.

Stocks attempted to rebound on Thursday on news that gross domestic product grew much faster than expected in Q2, but sellers swooped in near the close.³

Stocks rallied broadly on Friday after a positive inflation report. The personal consumption expenditures index, widely considered the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, showed only a slight uptick in June—in line with expectations.⁴

Watch the Rotation

July 26 saw the end of the third consecutive week in which the Dow led the other two averages and its fourth straight week of gains.

At the same time, the S&P and Nasdaq have been under pressure, with both posting losses for the second consecutive week.

So far in July, the Dow is up nearly 4 percent, the S&P is down slightly, and the Nasdaq is off by over 2 percent. That’s a marked change from earlier in the year when the Nasdaq led.⁵

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 26, 2024}
2. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 26, 2024}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 25, 2024}
4. ^{CNBC.com, July 26, 2024}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 26, 2024}

Stocks were under pressure last week as investors appeared to rotate out of mega-cap tech stocks and into areas that may benefit from lower interest rates.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.97 percent, while Nasdaq Composite Index declined 3.65 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the downward trend, up 0.72 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slid 1.48 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.¹

Dow Leads Again

The week began very differently than it ended.

All three averages rallied over the first couple of days this week, with the Dow leading on both days. Fed Chair Powell indicated the Fed may not wait for inflation to reach its 2 percent target before considering a rate move, buoying the markets.^2,3

Then, markets hit a speed bump as investors appeared to take profits and rotated away from mega-cap tech names. The selling broadened beyond tech-related names on Thursday as all but one of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors fell.

Early Friday morning, a global tech outage caused disruptions for businesses, governments, and financial institutions, contributing to the weekly decline. Despite its losses in the second part of the week, the Dow finished in the green.^4,5,6

Upbeat Economic Data

Although stocks were under pressure, some investors saw “green shoots” in a few economic reports. Housing starts rose 3 percent in June. Building permits also ticked higher during the month. Retail sales were unchanged in June, which was better than expected. Investors were encouraged that consumers were still spending despite ongoing inflation.^7,8

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 19, 2024}
2. ^{CNBC.com, July 15, 2024}
3. ^{CNBC.com, July 16, 2024}
4. ^{MarketWatch.com, July 17, 2024}
5. ^{CNBC.com, July 18, 2024}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 19, 2024}
7. ^{KPMG.com, July 17, 2024}
8. ^{AP.com, July 16, 2024}

Stocks advanced last week as market leadership shifted amid fresh inflation data and quarterly corporate reports starting to roll in.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.87 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 1.59 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index, which has led all year, rose 0.25 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rallied 1.62 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.¹

Dow Breaks 40,000 (Again)

Mega-cap tech led modest gains for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the first two days of the week, with the Dow posting modest losses both days.

But that narrow trading range didn’t last long as market leadership shifted midweek. Upbeat corporate earnings reports and milder-than-expected consumer inflation in June drove momentum in a handful of larger industrial and consumer stocks.^2,3

Q2 earnings season got into full swing later in the week, dominated mostly by financial and consumer-oriented companies. Markets seemed initially unfazed by better-than-expected reports from some money center banks. Some observers suggested higher interest rates may be one of the reasons for the market’s lukewarm response.⁴

The Dow ended the week with a solid gain after three consecutive weeks of trailing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The Dow also closed above 40,000, the first time it had done so since May, and hit a 52-week intraday high on Friday.

Mixed Inflation News

Two inflation reports came out last week: PPI and CPI.

The Producer Price Index, which measures the change in wholesale prices, rose 2.6 percent in June year over year—its largest increase in 16 months. By contrast, the Consumer Price Index, which tracks consumer prices, showed that the pace of inflation slowed in June.

Markets shrugged off the conflicting data, instead embracing the cooler CPI data. The Fed is likely taking notes for its next Fed meeting, scheduled for July 30-31.⁵

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2024}
2. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2024}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 11, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2024}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2024}

Stocks steadily advanced over the holiday week thanks to strength in mega-cap tech issues and encouraging jobs data.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.95 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added 3.50 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up a modest 0.66 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 2.30 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.¹

Nasdaq, S&P Extend Runs

ADP’s employment report on Wednesday showed private-sector employers added 150,000 jobs in June—slightly slower than May’s pace—adding to investor hopes that a slowing economy may prompt the Fed to adjust short-term rates as early as September. The Nasdaq and the S&P hit their 23rd and 33rd record closes, respectively, for the year.²

Friday morning’s jobs report from the Labor Department showed 206,000 jobs added last month, which also suggested a strong-but-cooling economy. News of slower job growth, slowing wage growth, and a slight uptick in unemployment helped drive down Treasury yields, and stocks finished the short week with a strong rally. The Nasdaq and S&P both closed at all-time highs on Friday.³

Still Catching Up?

Driving much of the job growth in last week’s reports was a post-pandemic catchup effect: sectors such as healthcare and leisure/hospitality showed they are still recovering.⁴

The private-sector jobs data and the Labor Department report painted a similar picture of an economy creating jobs but at a slower rate than in the past.^5,6

Footnotes And Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 5, 2024}
2. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 3, 2024}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 5, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 5, 2024}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 5, 2024}
6. ^{Marketwatch.com, July 5, 2024}

Stocks finished the last week of June and Q2 mixed as investors digested a fresh round of economic data.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.08%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average also dipped 0.08 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.24 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index tracks developed overseas stock markets and rose 0.27 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.¹

Nasdaq Regains Lead

Last week opened with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq heading lower, while the Dow rallied on momentum from the prior week. But by mid-week, the leadership shifted with the Nasdaq pushing higher.²

With the back half of the week packed with fresh economic data, conflicting stories developed about the economy. New home sales fell 11.3 percent in May—the largest month-over-month drop in a year and a half—while the supply of new homes hit a 16-year high. Meanwhile, first-quarter GDP revised slightly to 1.4 percent higher, and durable goods increased in May.^3,4,5

Friday’s personal consumption and expenditure (PCE) data showed that core inflation slowed to 0.1 percent in May over the prior month and 2.6 percent year-over-year—its lowest annual rate in three years. Both figures were in line with expectations. Stock prices initially rallied on the upbeat inflation news, but the early gains faded as the trading day progressed.⁶

Divergent Speakers

Federal Reserve officials have worked to communicate that despite the progress made on inflation in recent months, it remains above the Fed’s 2 percent target.

Last week, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman surprised the markets when she indicated, “I remain willing to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at a future meeting should progress on inflation stall or even reverse.” Fed Chair Powell, scheduled to speak on July 2, told investors on May 14, “I don’t think that it’s likely, based on the data that we have, that the next move that we make would be a rate hike.”⁷

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 28, 2024}
2. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 28, 2024}
3. ^{CNBC.com, June 27-28, 2024}
4. ^{AP News, June 27, 2024}
5. ^{Reuters, June 26, 2024} 
6. ^{CNBC.com, June 28, 2024}
7. ^{CNBC.com, June 25, 2024}

Stocks edged higher over the four trading days last week, with the three major averages taking turns leading based on various economic and artificial intelligence (AI) news.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.45 percent–its best week since May–while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.61 percent. The Nasdaq Composite, which has led all year, ended flat. The MSCI EAFE Index, tracking developed overseas stock markets, rose 0.94 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.¹

Mixed Economic News

All three averages began the week with gains, including new highs for the S&P 500. However, stocks posted only modest gains on Tuesday as mixed economic data came in. Retail sales rose 0.1 percent—less than expected, although better than in April when sales fell.^2,3,4

Markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday on Wednesday.

As the week ended, it was the Dow’s turn to lead as sentiment shifted on mega-cap tech names as investors again questioned the sustainability of AI market drivers. Home prices hit a new high in May—this, paired with high mortgage rates, caused existing home sales to fall for the third consecutive month.^4,5

A Notable AI Driver

Some investors and market analysts are examining the underlying long-term drivers of AI more closely, given its outsized impact on market averages like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

One such underlying driver is “DRAM”: Dynamic Random Access Memory, the AI-turbocharged version of a RAM semiconductor, more commonly referred to as “memory chips.” Companies making DRAM chips are an essential part of the AI ecosystem. Expect attention to shift to prominent DRAM players as they report earnings in Q2.⁶

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 21, 2024}
2. ^{CNBC.com, June 17, 2024}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 20, 2024}
4. ^{MarketWatch.com, June 18, 2024}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 21, 2024}
6. ^{MarketWatch.com, June 20, 2024}

Stocks notched a solid gain last week, driven by the Fed’s decision, May’s inflation report, and Apple’s AI-related news.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.58 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite picked up 3.24 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has lagged most of the year, slid 0.54 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 1.44 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.¹

S&P 500, Nasdaq Lead; Dow Lags

Market leadership took a familiar form. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led while the Dow trailed for the second week (and four out of the past six weeks).²

Stocks trended higher at the start of the week as investors cheered an artificial intelligence update from Apple.^3,4

By midweek, the market had split, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 moving higher while the Dow lagged. Investors were upbeat after learning that consumer prices rose less than expected in May and that the Fed decided to keep rates steady. However, some investors were unsettled after learning Fed officials had shifted their outlook and now only penciled in a single rate cut between now and year-end. A few months ago, the Fed had indicated as many as three cuts were possible.⁵

Busy Week for News

Last week was chock full of market-moving events. Between Apple’s AI update, inflation, and the Fed, it was a toss-up which one influenced sentiment the most.

AI’s outsized role in driving market momentum continued last week. OpenAI’s deal with Apple arrived at the start of last week, and the news followed OpenAI’s deal earlier this year with Microsoft. (These companies are mentioned for illustrative purposes only; it is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold this or any security.)⁶

Wednesday morning, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was announced. A few hours later, the Federal Open Market Committee updated its monetary policy. Those pieces of news have only arrived together 13 times since 2008.

The FOMC kept rates steady at the current 5.25-5.50 percent target range, a widely expected decision. However, the tame CPI report caused some volatility as investors grappled with how the report may influence Fed policy.^7,8

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 14, 2024}
2. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 14, 2024}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 10, 2024}
4. ^{CNBC.com, June 12, 2024}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 10, 2024}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 10, 2024}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 10, 2024}
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, June 10, 2024}

Stocks rose last week despite conflicting stories from economic reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 0.29 percent while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index powered ahead 1.31 percent. The Nasdaq Composite led, picking up 2.38 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index tracks developed overseas stock markets and rose 1.29 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.¹

All Eyes on the Jobs Report

Weak manufacturing data prompted declines early in the week, reflecting investor concerns over the economy’s strength. But stocks rallied in anticipation of the jobs report on Friday.

However, the market reaction was mixed when the stronger-than-expected jobs report finally came. The S&P 500 touched a record high intraday before profit-taking late in the session.^2,3

The Catalyst That Wasn’t

The week closed with a jobs report that underscored the economy’s resilience while highlighting the data’s mixed nature.

The 272,000 jobs added in May were higher than the 190,000 economists expected. At the same time, wages rose 4.1 percent from a year ago. The strong jobs report and surprise wage increase supported the narrative that the Fed may now wait longer before considering a move on interest rates.⁴

Although inflation now exceeds the central bank’s 2 percent target, the jobs report suggests that economic growth remains powerful despite higher short-term rates.⁴

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 7, 2024}
2. ^{CNBC.com, June 6, 2024}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 7, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 7, 2024}

Stocks edged lower in the final week of May as fresh news on economic growth and inflation failed to inspire investors.

Stocks Slide

Markets shrugged off news that the Q1 Gross Domestic Product was revised lower to 1.3 percent from the initial estimated 1.6 percent. Despite concerns that the economy was cooling faster than expected, investors didn’t believe the update was enough to influence the Fed’s decision about adjusting short-term rates.¹

On Friday, investors were on edge waiting for the update on inflation. The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, called the personal consumption and expenditures (PCE), rose 0.2 percent in April, which was in line with forecasts.²

Stocks rose slightly in pre-market trading on the news but were under pressure throughout the day as investors digested the inflation update. But in the last hour of trading, stock staged a powerful rally led by the Dow, which had its best day of the year.

Is Bad News Good News?

On the economic front, last week’s news was generally disappointing. The update on Q1 GDP was a bit discouraging, and several Fed officials gave seemingly more hawkish updates. Also, the Fed’s “Beige Book” revealed modest economic growth nationwide.

Yet despite the drumbeat of bad news, stocks were resilient and closed only slightly lower for the holiday-shortened week.³

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{CNBC.com, May 30, 2024}
2. ^{CNBC.com, May 31, 2024}
3. ^{Investors Business Daily, May 30, 2024}