Author: Ramsay Capital Group

Stocks rallied last week as investor spirits lifted thanks to a better-than-expected start to the second-quarter earnings season.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.95%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 added 2.55%. The Nasdaq Composite index jumped 3.33% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, advanced 3.54%. ^{1, 2, 3}

Earnings Propel Stocks

Earnings season kicked off last week, with major banks reporting second-quarter results. While their results were mixed, they appeared to indicate that consumers and businesses remained reasonably healthy–a perspective that helped erase some negative sentiment overhanging the market.

As the week progressed, stocks gained momentum as earnings results poured in from different sectors of the economy, showing that businesses were navigating higher inflation and slowing growth better than investors feared. Technology and other gloomier sectors were among the market’s best performers for the week. A few disappointing corporate reports and a weak economic report sent stocks lower to close out a solid week.

Cracks in the Foundation 

Data released last week indicated more trouble in the housing market. The latest monthly homebuilder sentiment survey showed the single largest monthly drop in its 37-year history, except for April 2020. The sentiment report preceded a drop in June housing starts and issued building permits. Housing starts declined for the second month, falling 2.0% and surprising economists who had expected an increase.^4,5

Housing weakness made itself known through a 5.4% month-over-month decline in June’s existing home sales, representing the slowest pace since June 2020. Increasing prices and higher mortgage rates demonstrated drags on buyer demand.⁶

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 22, 2022}
2. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 22, 2022}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 22, 2022}
4. ^{CNBC, July 18, 2022}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 19, 2022}

In an effort to extend health care benefits to more people, the IRS introduced the small business healthcare tax credit. This credit may benefit employers that have fewer than 25 full-time equivalent employees, offer a qualified health plan through a Small Business Health Options Program Marketplace, and pay at least 50% of the cost of the employee-only health care coverage. There may also be some average wage requirements.

The maximum credit covers:

• 50% of premiums paid for small business employers
• 35% of premiums paid for small tax-exempt employers

The credit may also be available for two consecutive taxable years.

* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁵

Footnotes and Sources

5. ^{IRS.gov, July 30, 2021}

In a holiday-shortened trading week, stocks rallied despite mixed economic data and vacillating energy prices and bond yields.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.77%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 1.94%. The Nasdaq Composite index picked up 4.56% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, edged 0.46% higher.^1,2,3

Stocks Move Higher

In advance of Friday’s much-anticipated employment report, stocks enjoyed successive daily gains despite ongoing concerns about a recession. Recession fears were supported by an inversion in the yield curve and updated second-quarter Gross Domestic Product projections indicating the economy is ready to contract.

Technology shares were the week’s big winners as investors appear to have turned to companies with earnings growth potential during a weakening economic environment. Stocks bounced along the flatline following the strong jobs report on Friday to close out a positive week.

Employment’s Mixed Signal

One of the holes in the “imminent-recession” narrative has been the labor market’s strength. Historically, recessions have been preceded by or concurrently with a weakening jobs market.

Friday’s employment report reflected a job market that continues to belie Wall Street’s recession fears. Employers added 372,000 jobs in June, a number that was above economists’ estimates of 250,000. Wage gains were robust (+5.1% year-over-year), though still below the inflation rate. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6%.⁴

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 8, 2022}
2. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 8, 2022}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 8, 2022}
4. ^{CNBC, July 8, 2022}

Two education credits are available to American taxpayers: the American Opportunity Tax Credit (AOTC) and the Lifetime Learning Credit (LLC). The IRS has lots of information about these two credits on their site, but here are some helpful highlights:

• The AOTC is allowed for expenses for course-related books, supplies, and equipment not necessarily paid to the educational institution but needed for attendance.
• There is a four-year limit on claiming the AOTC but no limit on the number of years you can claim the LLC.
• To claim either credit, use Form 8863.
• The AOTC is worth up to $2,500.
• To claim the full credit, your modified adjusted gross income must be $80,000 or less.

* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁶

Footnotes and Sources

6. ^{IRS.gov, March 20, 2020} 

Prospects of cooling inflation powered a rally in stock prices last week despite growing recession concerns.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.39%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 climbed 6.45%. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 7.49% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, edged 0.78% higher.^1,2,3

Stocks Bounce

Declining energy and food prices and falling bond yields signaled a potentially improving inflation outlook, buoying investor sentiment. The rally in stocks was most powerful on the first and final trading days of a holiday-shortened week. Stocks turned a bit choppy mid-week as investors digested Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Senate appearance but resumed their momentum on Thursday and rallied Friday as rate-hike expectations eased.

Though the weekly gain was a welcome respite from the market’s downward trend, declining bond yields and falling food and energy prices can also be interpreted as signs of slowing economic growth, which may represent a headwind for corporate earnings in the months ahead.

Powell Testifies

Fed Chair Jerome Powell told members of the Senate Finance Committee that the Fed is committed to lowering inflation and moving quickly to do so. He conceded that a recession could result from the Fed’s inflation-fighting efforts and acknowledged that some of the forces driving inflation (e.g., supply chain, war) are out of the Fed’s control.⁴

Perhaps the most exciting part of his testimony was what he didn’t say, which was a definitive statement on future hikes. Instead, Powell told lawmakers that he “anticipate[s] that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate.” Before his testimony, the Fed published a new research paper that found a greater than 50% chance of recession in the next four quarters.⁵

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2022}
2. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2022}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2022}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 22, 2022}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 22, 2022}

While the IRS website might not be in your top bookmarks, the website is helpful for a lot of things regarding taxes. Here are just a few things you can do on the site:

• Use Free File, where you can access brand-name tax software and online fillable forms.
• Use the IRS e-file system: a safe, easy, and common way to file your tax return.
• Check the status of your tax refund.
• Find out how to make payments electronically to pay your federal taxes. You can use a credit or debit card or enroll in the US Treasury’s Electronic Federal Tax Payment System to pay your taxes.
• Get tax forms and publications, including helpful tips for frequently asked questions.

* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁷

Footnotes and Sources

7. ^{IRS.gov, March 20, 2020}

Stocks moved lower last week as recession fears deepened following a Fed hike in interest rates and weak economic data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.79%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 dropped 5.79%. The Nasdaq Composite index slid 4.78% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slumped 4.51%.^1,2,3

Stocks Tumble

Stocks were under pressure all week due to inflation worries, higher yields, and rising recession concerns. In advance of the much-awaited mid-week meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), bond yields jumped, and stocks retreated on speculation that the Fed might raise rates by 75 basis points. When the Fed announced a 75 basis point hike on Wednesday, stocks rebounded strongly.

The enthusiasm was short-lived. Stocks resumed their slide on Thursday as global central banks followed with their own rate hikes. Recession fears grew based on a weak housing starts report and a contraction in the Philadelphia Fed Business Index–the first contraction since May 2020.⁴

Fed Rate Hike 

The Federal Reserve announced a 0.75% hike in the federal funds rate, making it the biggest rate increase since 1994 and signaling its commitment to address inflation. The report from last week’s FOMC meeting also indicated new rate projections, showing that all members expect rates to rise to at least 3.0% by year-end, with half the members expecting rates to rise to 3.375%.⁵

The 75 basis point rate increase was a late-developing change from earlier Fed guidance of a 50 basis point increase. The change of heart was in response to recent inflation data and rising inflationary expectations.⁶

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 17, 2022}
2. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 17, 2022}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 17, 2022}
4. ^{CNBC, June 16, 2022}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 15, 2022}

Properly preparing your tax return can be tricky, but here are some tips to help you avoid common errors:

• Submitting your tax return online ensures greater accuracy than mailing it in. The e-file system can detect common errors and send your filing back to you for you to correct, saving you a ton of time in processing and delays.
• Make sure to clearly print or type your full name, taxpayer identification number or SSN, and current address (including zip code).
• Choose only one correct filing status.
• Enter your income on the correct lines and include a Form 1040 to declare additional income and adjustments as needed.
• Put brackets around negative amounts.
• Keep a copy of the signed return and schedules for your records.

* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁶

Footnotes and Sources

6. ^{IRS.gov, January 3, 2021}

A higher-than-expected inflation report triggered a sell-off on Friday, leaving stocks in the red for the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.58%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 dropped 5.05%. The Nasdaq Composite index slid 5.60% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, declined 1.81%.^1,2,3

Inflation Upends Stocks

Stocks gyrated between gains and losses last week until sliding lower on Friday’s hot inflation report, which heightened worries over a more aggressive Fed and a further economic slowdown. Stocks moved higher to begin the week, despite rising bond yields, a profit warning from a major retailer, and Senate testimony by Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen, who said that inflation was likely to remain elevated.

Stocks turned lower later in the week on renewed concerns of an economic slowdown, sparked by a downward revision in The Federal Reserve-Atlanta’s real-time estimate of second-quarter GDP growth and a drop in new mortgage applications. Investors lightening up on stocks ahead of Friday’s inflation report may have also contributed to Thursday’s selling.

Inside Inflation 

Consumer prices rose 8.6% year-over-year in May, marking the highest rate since December 1981. Price increases over the last 12 months were driven by a 34.6% jump in energy prices and by food costs, which climbed 10.1%. Used car and truck prices, which had seen three straight months of declines, rose 1.8% from April, while airfares soared 12.6% in May.⁴

May’s inflation exceeded economists’ forecasts and dashed the hopes that inflation had plateaued. In a separate economic report on Friday, real wages (net of inflation) fell 0.6% in April and were lower by 3% from 12 months ago.⁵

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 10, 2022}
2. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 10, 2022}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, June 10, 2022}
4. ^{CNBC, June 10, 2022}
5. ^{CNBC, June 10, 2022}

If you don’t receive your W-2 or 1099 by January 31 of the year, you are filing taxes, or if the information on these forms is incorrect, contact your employer/payer. If you still haven’t received the forms you need by the end of February, you can contact the IRS at 800-829-1040, and they may be able to help.

When you contact the IRS, they will also reach out to the employer/payer for the information you need, and they will also send you Form 4852, which is a substitute for a W-2 or 1099. To do this, they will ask for your employer/payer’s name, address, and phone number (as well as your information).

* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁶

Footnotes and Sources

^{6. IRS.gov, January 13, 2021}