Author: Ramsay Capital Group

Stocks rose last week, looking past the government shutdown and apparently discounting any impact it may have on the economy.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index moved up 1.08 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.32 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.10 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 2.53 percent.^1,2

Shutdown Talk

The S&P and Nasdaq rose out of the gate Monday morning despite the threat of a possible government shutdown hanging over investor sentiment.³

As the midnight deadline approached for Congress to pass a continuing resolution that would temporarily fund the federal government, the prospect of a shutdown dominated market sentiment. The White House discussed permanent layoffs of some federal workers, stoking fears of further slowing an already sluggish labor market.⁴

Stocks initially fell on news of the shutdown but recovered by midday, driven by growing investor expectations that the shutdown would be short-lived. The S&P closed above 6700 for the first time.⁵

Momentum tempered after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested gross domestic product (GDP) may take a hit due to the shutdown, but all three averages recovered and closed at record highs.⁶

Stocks were mixed on Friday after the Senate failed to pass dueling funding bills that would have prevented the shutdown from entering its second week.⁷

Jobs Report Delayed

Investors have looked past—but continue to be jittery about—the government shutdown and its potential impact on an otherwise resilient economy, which is experiencing a hiring slowdown.

One of the first impacts felt from the shutdown was the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly employment report, scheduled for release on Friday, but delayed until the government reopens for business. However, ADP’s monthly report, released on Wednesday, showed that corporate employers shed 32,000 jobs in September, below the forecast of 45,000 new jobs.⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, October 3, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, October 3, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, September 29, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, September 30, 2025}
5. ^{WSJ.com, October 1, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, October 2, 2025}
7. ^{CNBC.com, October 3, 2025}
8. ^{WSJ.com, October 1, 2025}

Stocks fell last week, buffeted by concerns about stock price valuations and a possible government shutdown.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 0.31 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 0.65 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.15 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 0.34 percent.^1,2

Stocks Under Pressure

The S&P 500 and the small-cap index Russell 2000 hit all-time intraday highs on Tuesday before trending lower. The decline turned into a three-day retreat for stocks.³

Adding to the selling pressure was Federal Reserve Chair Powell, who made cautious comments on stock price valuations on Tuesday. Investors were also watching a possible government shutdown as Congressional budget deliberations appeared to stall.^4,5

It was the first time in six months that all three averages (Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq) declined over three consecutive sessions.⁶

Stocks rebounded Friday after the Personal Consumption & Expenditures (PCE) Index—the Fed’s preferred inflation measure—was in line with expectations. The news appeared to reassure investors that the Fed would move ahead with its “penciled-in” rate adjustments for the remainder of this year.⁷

Economic Snapshot

A flurry of updated economic data hit last week. Here are the key takeaways:

Overall, the indicators suggested a strong economy. The final estimate of Q2 gross domestic product was 3.8 percent, stronger than previous reports. Durable goods orders rebounded in August, driven by a surge in aircraft orders. And weekly jobless claims fell.⁸

The fact that the PCE was in line with estimates—core inflation of 2.9 percent year over year—was welcomed news for investors. The report seemed to support Fed Chair Powell’s position, who on Tuesday suggested that weakness in the labor market outweighed concerns about stubborn inflation.⁹

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, September 26, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, September 26, 2025}  
3. ^{CNBC.com, September 22, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, September 23, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, September 24, 2025}
6. ^{WSJ.com, September 25, 2025}
7. ^{CNBC.com, September 24, 2025}
8. ^{WSJ.com, September 25, 2025}
9. ^{CNBC.com, September 24, 2025}

Stocks posted solid gains last week, propelled by the Fed’s decision to cut short-term interest rates.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.22 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 2.21 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.05 percent. By contrast, the MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 0.27 percent.^1,2

Third Week of Gains for S&P, Nasdaq

Stocks advanced to start the week following the president’s positive comments on trade talks with China. The news helped push the S&P 500 to close above 6600 for the first time.³

After the Fed announced on Wednesday that it was cutting short-term interest rates by a quarter percentage point, all three major averages fell before rising again in a choppy, mixed trading session.^4,5

After digesting the Fed decision, all three major averages posted solid gains on Thursday, paced by tech names. But small caps stole the day’s headlines, with the Russell 2000 Index gaining more than 2 percent and hitting an intraday record high. Smaller companies tend to disproportionately benefit when the Fed lowers interest rates, given their greater reliance on outside funding than larger companies.⁶

The post-cut momentum continued into Friday; this was the second consecutive week of gains for the Dow Industrials, and the third straight week for the Nasdaq and S&P 500.⁷

Following the Fed

The Federal Reserve decision brought the Federal Funds Rate down to a 4-4.25 percent target range—its lowest level in three years.

While widely anticipated, the real news about the cut was in the finer points made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in the post-meeting press conference. He said the move was essentially a “risk management” cut. This concept confused investors a bit, resulting in scattered markets.

Powell also said two more rate adjustments are “penciled in” for this year. He suggested another rate change could occur in 2026, followed by another in 2027.⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, September 19, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, September 19, 2025}  
3. ^{CNBC.com, September 15, 2025}
4. ^{WSJ.com, September 16, 2025}
5. ^{WSJ.com, September 17, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, September 18, 2025}
7. ^{CNBC.com, September 19, 2025}
8. ^{CNBC.com, September 17, 2025}

Stocks posted a solid gain last week, riding a rally in megacap tech stocks while overcoming interest rate anxiety, a downward revision to jobs data, and mixed inflation reports.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.59 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 2.03 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.95 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 1.18 percent.^1,2

Stocks At New Highs

Stocks rose to start the week on renewed AI enthusiasm, with the Nasdaq hitting a new record intraday high. Stocks continued to push ahead on Tuesday despite fresh data showing large downward revisions to job creation for the 12 months through March.³

The rally continued midweek after an unexpected drop in wholesale inflation appeared to boost investors’ hopes for Fed rate moves before the year’s end.^4,5

Investors cheered Thursday’s consumer inflation report, anticipating that the reading wouldn’t be enough to derail a Fed rate move this month. The S&P and Nasdaq posted record intraday highs and closes three days in a row, while the Dow Industrials cracked 46,000 for the first time.⁶

The Nasdaq hit a new record close on Friday, while the S&P 500 flattened out and the Dow posted a modest loss on the week’s last day of trading.⁷

Fed Meets After Mixed Inflation Reports

Wednesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report showed wholesale prices fell 0.1 percent in August after a 0.7 percent increase in July. Then, on Thursday, fresh Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed that retail prices rose a hotter-than-expected 0.4 percent in August—faster than July’s 0.3 percent gain.^8,9

All eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell this week. He is expected to outline his plan to adjust rates at the Fed’s scheduled two-day meeting, which ends on Wednesday, September 17. Investors will be looking for insights about how he plans to guide the economy through this period of sluggish job growth and stubborn consumer inflation.

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, September 12, 2025}
   
2. ^{Investing.com, September 12, 2025}  
3. ^{WSJ.com, September 8, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, September 9, 2025}
5. ^{WSJ.com, September 10, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, September 11, 2025}
7. ^{CNBC.com, September 12, 2025}
8. ^{WSJ.com, September 10, 2025}
9. ^{WSJ.com, September 11, 2025}

Stocks made gains last week, even as megacap tech gains outweighed economic concerns.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.33 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.14 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average descended 0.32 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 0.04 percent.^1,2

Tech Gains, Jobs Slow

Markets started the week on shaky ground. The Dow Industrials, S&P 500, and Nasdaq each slipped downward more than half a percentage point. Tariff uncertainty rose again, as a court ruling injected fresh doubt. Meanwhile, rising Treasury yields amplified volatility and rattled megacap tech names.³

By Tuesday, stocks managed a partial rebound, and market direction shifted. Tech bounced back the next morning—led by two megacap tech stocks’ gains—with one soaring after avoiding an antitrust penalty.⁴

On Thursday, softer private hiring data and rising layoff trends fueled hopes of an imminent Fed rate move, with the S&P hitting a fresh record close. Treasury yields dropped significantly on rate-cut speculation, reinforcing risk appetite. The mood shifted again on Friday. A surprisingly weak jobs report undercut market optimism.^5,6

Focus on Jobs

Friday’s employment report fell short, as employers created fewer jobs last month.

Unemployment increased to 4.3 percent in August from 4.2 percent the prior month, hitting a 4-year high. Job growth slowed to 22,000 jobs in August, after much higher expectations of 75,000. In addition, a revision of the June estimate decreased the number by 27,000 jobs.⁷

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, September 5, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, September 5, 2025}  
3. ^{CNBC.com, September 2, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, September 3, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, September 4, 2025}
6. ^{WSJ.com, September 5, 2025}
7. ^{MarketWatch.com, September 5, 2025}