Weekly Market Insights

Stocks ended the week with a strong gain as traders continued to focus on tariff talks while appearing to overlook upbeat news on inflation.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 5.70 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 7.29 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 4.95 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased by 0.72 percent.^1,2

Stocks Rebound

Stocks rallied on Monday after a report surfaced that the administration was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs. But when the White House clarified its position, sellers stepped in.

On Tuesday, prices jumped at the next opening bell after the Treasury Secretary said the U.S. was open to tariff negotiations with trading partners. The rally stalled and reversed on news the administration was adjusting tariffs on Chinese imports.³

After the White House announced a 90-day pause on specific tariffs on Wednesday, markets pushed higher. The S&P 500 gained 9.5 percent, its largest one-day increase in 17 years.⁴

Stocks fell again Thursday morning, appearing to overlook an upbeat Consumer Price Index report showing that core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose at a 2.8 percent annual rate–the best number in more than four years. Stocks finished the week with a powerful rally, capping a volatile trading week.^5,6.

Watching the Bond Market

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose more than 50 basis points for the week, marking one of the most significant moves on record. (When bond yields increase, bond prices tend to move lower.)

The week’s action was unexpected. In the past, investors have turned to U.S. bonds during market turbulence. However, the ongoing tariff talks have, at least temporarily, influenced how some overseas investors view U.S. bonds.^7,8

The bond market activity influenced the mortgage market, where the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage closed Friday at 7.1 percent, its highest level in two months.⁹

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 11, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, April 11, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, April 8, 2025}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 9, 2025}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 10, 2025}
6. ^{MarketWatch.com, April 11, 2025}
7. ^{WSJ.com, April 9, 2025}
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, April 9, 2025}
9. ^{CNBC.com, April 11, 2025}

Stocks fell broadly last week as domestic and foreign markets reacted to the White House’s tariffs.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 9.08 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 10.02 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 7.86 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 7.39 percent.^1,2

Under Pressure
Stocks rallied the first half of the week as markets tried to anticipate the potential impact of tariffs previously announced by the White House.³

Soon after the closing bell on Wednesday, President Trump’s new tariffs surprised markets. Global markets reacted to the news overnight.⁴

Markets opened lower on Thursday, and the selling continued through Friday. Treasuries rallied in a flight to quality as investors moved to the sidelines. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note closed Friday at 4.0 percent. Bond yields generally fall when bond prices rise.^5,6

Powell’s Speech

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave a previously scheduled and much-anticipated speech on Friday. He explained:

• The labor market is in good shape and not a significant source of inflation.
• Longer-term inflation expectations are “well anchored and consistent with our 2 percent inflation goal” – despite higher expectations for inflation over the short term.
• Regarding consumer sentiment, while consumers “may not feel great about the economy now, they still keep spending.” He added that the same happened during the pandemic.
• The Fed’s policy stance is “well positioned to wait for greater clarity… (on the likely effects of trade and fiscal policy, for example) before considering any changes in monetary policy.”⁷

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 4, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, April 4, 2025}
3. ^{MarketWatch.com, April 1, 2025}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 2, 2025}
5. ^{MarketWatch.com, April 3, 2025}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 4, 2025}
7. ^{MarketWatch.com, April 4, 2025}

Stocks moved lower last week as investors swung from exuberance to disappointment on news over tariffs and inflation.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.53 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index retreated 2.59 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.96 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, declined 1.29 percent.^1,2

An Up and Down Week
Stocks started the week with a sharp rally after the White House said it may “give a lot of countries breaks” on reciprocal tariffs. The positive momentum continued into Tuesday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 outpacing the Dow.³

Then, midweek, news that the White House was planning additional tariffs on all cars made outside the U.S. rattled markets.^4,5

On Friday, investors reacted to a warmer-than-expected inflation report and lower consumer sentiment, putting further pressure on stocks as the week closed.⁶

Noise vs Signal

There can be a lot of noise in the market from time to time. This can make it hard for investors to interpret information as they search for the actual signal.

Last week, investors were trying to interpret the White House decision to impose tariffs on all cars and some car parts made outside of the U.S. While some automakers are domestic and others are foreign-based, the question is whether companies will absorb the additional costs, pass them on to consumers, or look to build factories in the United States.⁷

Separating the noise from the signal may take time, which can be more challenging when the markets react to new tariff updates as they are announced.

 

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 28, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, March 28, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, March 25, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, March 26, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, March 27, 2025}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 28, 2025}
7. ^{MarketWatch.com, March 27, 2025}

Stocks notched a solid gain last week as upbeat comments from the Fed helped stocks snap their four-week losing streak.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.51 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index picked up 0.17 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led, gaining 1.20 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 0.75 percent.^1,2

A Solid Week

Stocks opened the week higher despite weaker-than-expected retail sales. On Tuesday, stocks pulled back on disappointing economic data and renewed Middle East tensions.^3,4

Stocks roared higher Wednesday as investors looked forward to the Federal Reserve’s meeting. As widely expected, the Fed kept rates steady, but Fed Chair Powell’s comments buoyed investors’ spirits.⁵

Stocks dipped Thursday and opened lower Friday, but investors showed some confidence by pushing prices higher into Friday’s close.⁶

The Fed Stays Positive

Amid all the market turbulence of late, the Fed was a steadying influence.

At his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Powell stressed that the economy remained strong and suggested that any impact from tariffs on inflation would be short-term.

But the primary reason investors cheered came down to this: most Fed officials still penciled in two interest rate cuts for this year. In late January, Powell said the central bank was in no hurry to adjust its policy stance, which unsettled the markets.⁷

^{Footnotes and Sources}

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 21, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, March 21, 2025}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 17, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, March 18, 2025}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 19, 2025}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 21, 2025}
7. ^{CNBC.com, March 18, 2025}

Investors endured another volatile, whipsaw week as ongoing trade talks and White House comments about the economy unsettled investors.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 2.27 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.43 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.07 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 0.95 percent.^1,2

Markets Stem Losses

Stocks opened the week lower as investors reacted to the president’s weekend comments about the economy. Then, U.S. and Canadian leaders traded additional tariff threats, riling up anxious investors.^3,4

Stocks rebounded midweek after a cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report eased growing inflation concerns.⁵

The broad market slide resumed Thursday, but better-than-expected February wholesale inflation data helped buffer losses. The S&P 500 ended Thursday in correction territory—10 percent below its February 19 record close.⁶

Markets pushed higher Friday, clawing back some losses for the week. News of progress in resolving the federal government shutdown soothed investors’ nerves.⁷

Sunny Side ‘Down’

Fewer CPI constituents garner more attention from consumers right now than the price of eggs. Avian bird flu—and the subsequent culling of millions of chickens—was primarily to blame for prices rising 15 percent in January and another 10 percent in February. While recent evidence suggests prices have dropped, the cost of eggs remains a sticky issue—even though prices of many other items have risen just as much, if not more.^8,9

So why do consumers appear to be overly uneasy?

One theory is that eggs symbolize something more significant. Not only are eggs a critical, inexpensive source of protein and nutrients for millions of consumers, but they are also a core part of many other foods made at home or mass-produced. For that reason, eggs are a mental proxy for how consumers believe the broader economy is doing.¹⁰

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 14, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, March 14, 2025}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 10, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, March 11, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, March 12, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, March 12, 2025}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 14, 2025}
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, March 12, 2025}
9. ^{Newsweek, March 11, 2025}
10. ^{MarketWatch.com, March 10, 2025}

Stocks continued their slide through a volatile week. U.S. trade policy drove much of the market’s movement, broadening investors’ concerns about economic growth and inflation.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 3.10 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 3.45 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 2.37 percent. By contrast, the MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rallied 2.85 percent.^1,2

Tariffs Take Effect

Big price swings and tariff uncertainty loomed over the entire week. Stocks opened lower out of the gate after the White House confirmed the planned 25 percent tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods would go forward. Soft manufacturing and construction data also put broad downward pressure on markets. Meanwhile, European stocks continued to rally on anticipated defense spending.³

Stocks fell further as tariffs affected Canada, Mexico, and China. Each country announced retaliatory tariffs of their own, further fanning inflationary fears among investors. By Tuesday’s close, all three averages were down 3 percent on the week, and the S&P had given up its post-election gains.⁴

Markets rebounded midweek after the White House announced a one-month reprieve from tariffs for North American automakers complying with the existing United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The recovery rally built momentum as the administration hinted that exemptions for other sectors could follow.⁵

However, as trade policy fatigue rose again, the rebound reversed—despite the White House pausing more tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports until April 2. Comments from the Treasury secretary defending U.S. tariffs and downbeat economic reports put further pressure on share prices. The Nasdaq entered correction territory, and for the first time in five years, the S&P 500 hit its sixth consecutive day of +/-1 percent price swings.⁶

Stocks continued to fall after an underwhelming February jobs report. Later, markets rebounded after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the economy “continues to be in a good place” and that the Fed was holding firm on current rates. The S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all finished Friday in the green despite being down for the week.⁷

Under the Hood

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) published fresh manufacturing data on Monday. Although headline numbers were decent, a closer look revealed that new orders dropped in January from a years-long high into correction territory while deliveries and prices paid jumped.⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 7, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, March 7, 2025}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 3, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, March 4, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, March 5, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, March 6, 2025}
7. ^{MarketWatch.com, March 7, 2025}
8. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 4, 2025}

Stocks were mixed last week as investor concerns over inflation and trade policy combined to produce another volatile trading week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.95 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.98 percent. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index dropped an eye-catching 3.47 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 1.03 percent.^1,2

Trade Talk

The week began under pressure after the White House said 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada would begin after the 30-day pause ends in early March.

On Tuesday, S&P and Nasdaq stocks continued their slide on news that consumer confidence weakened more than expected. Concerns about inflation and tariffs merged with investors fretting over economic growth and global trade. It was the fourth straight day of declines for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The Dow, however, advanced for its third consecutive session.^3,4

After a quiet Wednesday, stock fell broadly on Thursday after the White House announced additional tariffs on goods from China and Europe. A large chipmaker prominent in artificial intelligence (AI) matters produced a mixed corporate report for Q4, which put some pressure on the broader market.^5,6

Friday’s news that inflation moderated boosted stocks, with prices accelerating higher into the close of trading. The Fed’s favorite core inflation measure hit 2.6 percent in January, which aligns with forecasts.⁷

Getting a Read on Tariffs

Markets dislike uncertainty, so steady trade talk produces volatile intra-week trading. Investors don’t know what tariffs will be enforced versus which ones are part of an ongoing negotiation, which can produce unsettling price swings.

S&P 500 companies echo some of that uncertainty. At last check, 146 have mentioned the term “tariff” or “tariffs” on Q4 conference calls with shareholders–the highest level since Q2 2019.⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 28, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, February 28, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, February 25, 2025}
4. ^{MarketWatch.com, February 25, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, February 26, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, February 27, 2025}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 28, 2025}
8. ^{Insight.FactSet.com, February 10, 2025}

Stocks fell last week as concerns about sticky inflation and the pace of economic growth rattled investors.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 1.66 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.51 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell 2.51 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, was essentially flat (+0.04 percent).^1,2

S&P 500 Hits New High, Then Slips

Following the Presidents’ Day holiday, stock prices were largely range-bound on Tuesday despite some intraday volatility. Then stocks edged higher, shaking off some new tariff talk and disappointing housing starts data. The S&P 500 marked its third record close of the year on Wednesday.^3,4

On Thursday, stocks were under pressure from the start of trading after a weaker-than-expected outlook from a mega-retailer. The update reinforced some concerns that the economy may be slowing. The selling accelerated on Friday after a consumer sentiment survey showed investors are unsettled about the inflation outlook.

Friday’s decline was the worst of the young year.⁵

Economic Jitters

Investors were forced to navigate a week of disappointing news about the economy and inflation.

First, traders were surprised to hear about slowing demand at the country’s biggest retailer, which soured the outlook for the consumer and the economy. Then, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey fell by 10 percent in February as consumers expressed concerns about higher inflation ahead of possible new tariffs.⁶

This combination prompted investors to move into a “risk-off” position before the weekend.

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 21, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, February 21, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, February 18, 2025}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 19, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, February 21, 2025}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 21, 2025}

Stocks advanced last week despite some intra-week volatility as investors showed concern about the economy’s strength.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.47 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index picked up 2.58 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.55 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, tacked on 2.53 percent.^1,2

The Fed Is in “No Hurry”

Stocks opened the week higher, quickly discounting news that the White House would impose 25 percent tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. Tuesday was a volatility session, punctuated by comments from Fed Chair Powell, who told lawmakers the central bank doesn’t “need to be in a hurry” to lower interior rates further.^3,4

Stocks opened lower Wednesday after a warmer-than-expected update on consumer prices. But stocks showed some resilience and rallied throughout the day. The Nasdaq managed to claw back its losses before Wednesday’s close.⁵

On Thursday, the White House announced a plan for reciprocal tariffs (levies on goods imported into the U.S. from countries that impose tariffs on U.S.-exported goods). But markets rallied on news that the administration would pause tariffs until they determine how much to levy on each country. Stocks took a breather on Friday, shrugging off a weaker-than-expected retail sales report.

The S&P ended shy of a record close, and the Nasdaq finished the week above the 20,000 mark.⁶

Inflation in Focus

The Consumer Price Index report showed prices rose 0.5 percent in January–slightly hotter than expected. Shelter costs remained elevated, increasing 0.4 percent for the month.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was also above forecast. Food prices rose 0.4 percent, pushed by a 15.2 percent increase in egg prices related to ongoing issues forcing farmers to cull chicken flocks. Energy prices picked up 1.1 percent as gasoline prices rose.^7,8

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 14, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, February 14, 2025}
3. ^{MarketWatch.com, February 10, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, February 11, 2025}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 12, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, February 14, 2025}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 12, 2025}
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, February 10, 2025} 

Stocks posted modest losses last week as tariff deals, January jobs data, and Q4 corporate reports injected volatility into markets.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.24 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 0.53 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.54 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, edged ahead 0.17 percent.^1,2

Tariffs, Q4 Reports, and Jobs

On Monday, stocks opened lower on news that tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China went into effect over the weekend. However, markets rebounded midmorning following news of a U.S.-Mexico deal that delayed new trade rules. News of a similar last-minute agreement with Canada followed.³

Stocks continued their rally midweek, led by technology stocks from companies that provided upbeat Q4 corporate reports.^4,5

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose for the third consecutive day on Thursday, while the Dow experienced a slight fall as investors digested more corporate earnings reports. The week closed on a down note as a mixed jobs report and a cautionary inflation outlook disappointed investors.^6,7

Mixed Signals on the Labor Market

As has happened several times in recent years, two job reports told conflicting stories about the state of the jobs market. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 143,000 jobs had been added for the month–a four-year low. Earlier in the week, the ADP report showed the economy added 188,000 new jobs, ahead of the 150,000 economists expected.^8,9

Why do the reports tell different stories? Economists point to various factors, including how January can be challenging to measure accurately, typically due to the more significant number of laid-off seasonal workers.¹⁰

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 7, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, February 7, 2025}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 3, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, February 4, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, February 5, 2025}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 6, 2025}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 7, 2025}
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, February 4, 2025}
9. ^{MarketWatch.com, February 5, 2025}
10. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 7, 2025}