Weekly Market Insights

Stocks fell last week as soft economic data rattled investors focused on the Fed’s next move with interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.93 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 4.25 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 5.77 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, declined 2.91 percent.^1,2

Economic Data Unsettles Investors

The four-day trading week got off to a rough start as weak manufacturing data reawakened recessionary fears. All three major averages were down for the first session after the Labor Day holiday. For many, it was reminiscent of August 5, when stocks tumbled as recession worries unsettled investors.³

Attention shifted to Friday’s jobs report as stocks traded narrowly. Markets initially reacted positively to news that job growth rebounded slightly and unemployment ticked down. However, selling pressure increased as the trading session progressed and investors digested the underlying data. The S&P 500 had its worst week since March 2023.⁴

Focus on Fed’s September Meeting

The Federal Reserve seems poised to make a tough decision regarding monetary policy in its September meeting. The jobs market and other softening economic data have quickly overshadowed concerns about inflation.

However, there’s still a case to be made for a soft landing.

Job growth in August was slower than expected, but 142,000 jobs were created–an uptick that some would argue is an overall positive despite missing expectations. The drop in the unemployment rate to 4.2 percent bolstered the soft-landing narrative.⁵

Market observers anticipate a 0.25 percent rate adjustment in September, but some contend that the Fed may consider a more significant move. On Friday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he was open to a larger move if necessary. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams commented similarly during the week.^6,7

Footnotes and Sources

 

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 6, 2024}
2. ^{Investing.com, August 30, 2024}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 3, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 6, 2024}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, September 6, 2024}
6. ^{Marketwatch.com, September 5, 2024}
7. ^{CNBC.com, September 6, 2024} 

There were mixed results for stocks last week as upbeat economic data and a critical Q2 corporate report shaped the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.94 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 0.24 percent. The Nasdaq Composite lagged, falling 0.92 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 0.35 percent.^1,2

Key Economic Data

Markets began the week quiet as investors awaited Q2 earnings from Nvidia, the world’s most influential name in artificial intelligence.

The chipmaker–the second largest stock in the S&P 500 by market capitalization–dipped on the news, putting pressure on the Nasdaq and S&P 500. (The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are market-weighted averages, so larger companies have an outsized impact.)³

Nvidia is mentioned to show its influence on the overall stock market. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the company.

On Thursday, an upward revision in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data boosted markets, although stocks fell later in the day. Friday’s Personal Consumption and Expenditures (PCE) data seemed to confirm that inflation remained tame, welcome news for investors who are anticipating the Fed may adjust rates in September.⁴

Softer Landing in Focus?

Several pieces of data helped build a narrative that the economy may be coming in for a soft landing.

Second-quarter GDP growth was revised upward, from 2.8 percent to 3.0 percent. That’s an improvement from Q1 GDP, which rose 1.4 percent. Some market watchers were concerned about the Q2 revision after pending home sales in July hit its lowest monthly level in 23 years.⁵

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE Index, came in 0.2 percent higher in July–in line with expectations. Core PCE inflation, which the Fed tracks closely, edged up 0.2 percent–also in line with forecasts.⁶

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 30, 2024}
2. ^{Investing.com, August 30, 2024}
3. ^{CNBC.com, August 28, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 30, 2024}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 29, 2024}
6. ^{CNBC.com, August 30, 2024}

Stocks notched a solid gain as dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials boosted the market’s recovery from early August lows.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.45 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite added 1.40 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 1.27 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 2.98 percent.^1,2

Dovish Week

Stocks started the week strong, rallying after Wall Street welcomed dovish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each posted gains on Monday–the 8th consecutive winning session. The Dow rose for the 5th session in a row.^3,4

From there, markets traded in a narrow band until Wednesday afternoon when minutes released from the July 30-31 FOMC Meeting revealed more dovish comments. On Thursday, stocks dipped ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming, speech.^5,6

Well-received comments from Powell on Friday boosted markets, with all three averages closing higher.⁷

“The Time has Come”

The Fed’s annual symposium for global central bankers started Friday morning with Fed Chair Powell’s much-anticipated speech. Citing the risk of the labor market cooling even further, he said, “the time has come for policy to adjust.”

Investors responded favorably, with the remaining question being how significant a rate cut might be. Powell kept that door open, adding that “the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 23, 2024}
2. ^{Investing.com, August 23, 2024}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 23, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 19, 2024}
5. ^{MarketWatch.com, August 22, 2024}
6. ^{Reuters.com, August 22, 2024}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 23, 2024}
8. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 23, 2024}

Stocks posted solid gains last week, buoyed by robust economic data and constructive comments from Fed officials.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 3.93 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 5.29 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged a bit, picking up 2.94 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, powered ahead by 4.31 percent.^1,2

Upbeat Economic News

Three critical economic data points gave investors what they were looking for: wholesale inflation, consumer prices, and retail sales.

Both the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index rose less than expected in July, reinforcing a picture of cooling inflation. The July retail sales report on Thursday was stronger than expected, which added more fuel to the week-long rally.^3,4,5

Market action slowed down on the week’s final trading day, with positive consumer sentiment gains countered only by a drop in housing starts.

It was the S&P 500’s best weekly gain of the year so far and the best since November of 2023. The gains helped erase losses from earlier in the month, when “carry trades” news from Japan unsettled investors.^6,7

Double Assist

Last week’s market rally saw assists from two places: economic data and constructive Fed comments.

On Thursday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he had “a lot more confidence that inflation’s sustainably on its way to 2%,” citing steady drops in CPI. And St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said, “the time may be nearing when an adjustment (to the Fed Funds Rate) may be appropriate.⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 16, 2024}
2. ^{Investing.com, August 16, 2024}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 13, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 14, 2024}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 15, 2024}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 16, 2024}
7. ^{CNBC.com, August 16, 2024}
8. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 15, 2024}

Stocks ended last week with modest losses, masking a volatile five-day trading period that saw investors embrace recession concerns and then dismiss the slow-down talk as speculation as the week progressed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.60 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index ended flat (-0.04 percent). The Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.18 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 1.21 percent.^1,2

Stocks Stage Comeback

Monday was the worst day for the S&P 500 and the Dow in nearly two years. As recession talk grew louder, investors took a “risk off” position.

On Monday, the Japanese market had its worst drop since 1987 as market participants unwound positions from a popular trading strategy called a “carry trade” amid a global sell-off in stock prices.³

But on Thursday, initial jobless claims fell less than expected—a positive sign for the labor markets— which quieted some of the recession talk. Also, as the week progressed, there was growing speculation that the July jobs report was more of an outlier than a lead indicator of a pending recession.

By Friday’s close, all three major averages had regained most of the week’s losses.⁴

Mortgage Update

Last Thursday, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped to 6.47 percent—a 15-month low. Many home buyers welcomed the news, and it appeared to help support Thursday’s rally.⁵

But the announcement left some wondering whether rates would continue to trend lower. Mortgage rates are tied to the interest rates set by the Federal Reserve. Some speculated the drop was due to market participants anticipating the Fed would adjust rates in September, which remains anything but certain.⁶

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 9, 2024}
2. ^{Investing.com, August 9, 2024}
3. ^{CNBC.com, August 5, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 8, 2024}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 8, 2024}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 9, 2024}

Stocks fell broadly last week as investors looked past upbeat Fed comments and focused on disappointing corporate reports and weaker-than-expected economic data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.20 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 2.06 percent. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 3.35 percent. By contrast, the MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 0.19 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.¹

Volatile Week of Trading

Stocks were under pressure early in the week as investors appeared to focus on the Fed’s meeting, which ended on Wednesday. It was a big week for Q2 corporate reports, with five of the ten largest names in the S&P 500 (by market capitalization) reporting numbers. But attention was mainly on the Fed’s meeting.^2,3

Stocks rallied on Wednesday when Fed Chair Powell indicated a September interest rate cut was “on the table.”⁴

But selling picked up on Thursday as investors’ attention quickly shifted to disappointing corporate reports and weak economic data. Friday morning’s disappointing June jobs report raised even more concerns about the economy’s strength. The Nasdaq ended the week in correction territory, down more than 10 percent from its recent all-time high.^5,6

Economic Concerns

Fresh economic data suggested weakening manufacturing, construction, and employment outlooks. On Friday, the Labor Department’s July jobs report showed a sharper-than-expected job growth slowdown and an unemployment uptick to 4.3 percent—the highest rate in 2½ years.

At Wednesday’s Fed press conference, investors welcomed Powell’s unusually candid and upbeat comments. However, as the week progressed, investors started questioning whether the Fed was misreading the economy and moving too slowly in adjusting interest rates.⁷

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 2, 2024}
2. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 2, 2024}
3. ^{S&P Global, July 31, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 31, 2024}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 1, 2024}
6. ^{CNBC.com, August 2, 2024}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, August 2, 2024}

Stocks had a mixed, see-saw week as disappointing corporate reports unsettled investors who appeared to rotate away from some leading groups in favor of other names.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 0.75 percent. Meanwhile, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 0.83 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.08 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 1.49 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.¹

Q2 Corporate Reports Start

Last week began with some positive momentum, but after Tuesday’s close, two influential tech companies reported disappointing Q2 numbers, which soured sentiment. On Wednesday, the S&P dropped 2 percent, and the Nasdaq fell more than 3 percent.

Stocks attempted to rebound on Thursday on news that gross domestic product grew much faster than expected in Q2, but sellers swooped in near the close.³

Stocks rallied broadly on Friday after a positive inflation report. The personal consumption expenditures index, widely considered the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, showed only a slight uptick in June—in line with expectations.⁴

Watch the Rotation

July 26 saw the end of the third consecutive week in which the Dow led the other two averages and its fourth straight week of gains.

At the same time, the S&P and Nasdaq have been under pressure, with both posting losses for the second consecutive week.

So far in July, the Dow is up nearly 4 percent, the S&P is down slightly, and the Nasdaq is off by over 2 percent. That’s a marked change from earlier in the year when the Nasdaq led.⁵

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 26, 2024}
2. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 26, 2024}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 25, 2024}
4. ^{CNBC.com, July 26, 2024}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 26, 2024}

Stocks were under pressure last week as investors appeared to rotate out of mega-cap tech stocks and into areas that may benefit from lower interest rates.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.97 percent, while Nasdaq Composite Index declined 3.65 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the downward trend, up 0.72 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slid 1.48 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.¹

Dow Leads Again

The week began very differently than it ended.

All three averages rallied over the first couple of days this week, with the Dow leading on both days. Fed Chair Powell indicated the Fed may not wait for inflation to reach its 2 percent target before considering a rate move, buoying the markets.^2,3

Then, markets hit a speed bump as investors appeared to take profits and rotated away from mega-cap tech names. The selling broadened beyond tech-related names on Thursday as all but one of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors fell.

Early Friday morning, a global tech outage caused disruptions for businesses, governments, and financial institutions, contributing to the weekly decline. Despite its losses in the second part of the week, the Dow finished in the green.^4,5,6

Upbeat Economic Data

Although stocks were under pressure, some investors saw “green shoots” in a few economic reports. Housing starts rose 3 percent in June. Building permits also ticked higher during the month. Retail sales were unchanged in June, which was better than expected. Investors were encouraged that consumers were still spending despite ongoing inflation.^7,8

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 19, 2024}
2. ^{CNBC.com, July 15, 2024}
3. ^{CNBC.com, July 16, 2024}
4. ^{MarketWatch.com, July 17, 2024}
5. ^{CNBC.com, July 18, 2024}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 19, 2024}
7. ^{KPMG.com, July 17, 2024}
8. ^{AP.com, July 16, 2024}

Stocks advanced last week as market leadership shifted amid fresh inflation data and quarterly corporate reports starting to roll in.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.87 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 1.59 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index, which has led all year, rose 0.25 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rallied 1.62 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.¹

Dow Breaks 40,000 (Again)

Mega-cap tech led modest gains for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the first two days of the week, with the Dow posting modest losses both days.

But that narrow trading range didn’t last long as market leadership shifted midweek. Upbeat corporate earnings reports and milder-than-expected consumer inflation in June drove momentum in a handful of larger industrial and consumer stocks.^2,3

Q2 earnings season got into full swing later in the week, dominated mostly by financial and consumer-oriented companies. Markets seemed initially unfazed by better-than-expected reports from some money center banks. Some observers suggested higher interest rates may be one of the reasons for the market’s lukewarm response.⁴

The Dow ended the week with a solid gain after three consecutive weeks of trailing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The Dow also closed above 40,000, the first time it had done so since May, and hit a 52-week intraday high on Friday.

Mixed Inflation News

Two inflation reports came out last week: PPI and CPI.

The Producer Price Index, which measures the change in wholesale prices, rose 2.6 percent in June year over year—its largest increase in 16 months. By contrast, the Consumer Price Index, which tracks consumer prices, showed that the pace of inflation slowed in June.

Markets shrugged off the conflicting data, instead embracing the cooler CPI data. The Fed is likely taking notes for its next Fed meeting, scheduled for July 30-31.⁵

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2024}
2. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2024}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 11, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2024}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2024}

Stocks steadily advanced over the holiday week thanks to strength in mega-cap tech issues and encouraging jobs data.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.95 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added 3.50 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up a modest 0.66 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 2.30 percent for the week through Thursday’s close.¹

Nasdaq, S&P Extend Runs

ADP’s employment report on Wednesday showed private-sector employers added 150,000 jobs in June—slightly slower than May’s pace—adding to investor hopes that a slowing economy may prompt the Fed to adjust short-term rates as early as September. The Nasdaq and the S&P hit their 23rd and 33rd record closes, respectively, for the year.²

Friday morning’s jobs report from the Labor Department showed 206,000 jobs added last month, which also suggested a strong-but-cooling economy. News of slower job growth, slowing wage growth, and a slight uptick in unemployment helped drive down Treasury yields, and stocks finished the short week with a strong rally. The Nasdaq and S&P both closed at all-time highs on Friday.³

Still Catching Up?

Driving much of the job growth in last week’s reports was a post-pandemic catchup effect: sectors such as healthcare and leisure/hospitality showed they are still recovering.⁴

The private-sector jobs data and the Labor Department report painted a similar picture of an economy creating jobs but at a slower rate than in the past.^5,6

Footnotes And Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 5, 2024}
2. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 3, 2024}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 5, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 5, 2024}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, July 5, 2024}
6. ^{Marketwatch.com, July 5, 2024}