Weekly Market Insights

Stocks were mixed last week, battling through tariff talk while responding to upbeat quarterly corporate reports and a trove of updates on the economy.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.59 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added 1.51 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.07 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, skidded 0.46 percent.^1,2

Economic News

All three major market averages posted modest gains to start the week as investors appeared to shrug off tough talk on trade from the White House over the weekend.³

Stocks mostly fell after news that inflation warmed up a bit last month, albeit in line with economists’ expectations. A narrow, chip-led rally developed after a megacap chipmaker said it received assurances from the White House of its ability to sell products in China, pushing the Nasdaq modestly higher.⁴

Stocks continued their climb over the next session following news that consumer spending rebounded last month as trade talk slowed. The S&P 500 posted another record close amid several companies beating expectations as they reported quarterly financials.^5,6

Markets went slightly lower on Friday despite news that consumer sentiment rose last month. The consumer sentiment report also showed a drop in concerns about tariff-induced inflation.⁷

Splitting the Difference

Two themes developed with fresh economic data released last week: inflation and consumers.

First, June inflation data painted a mixed picture. While consumer prices rose at a 2.7 percent annual clip last month (faster than May’s 2.4 percent rate), wholesale inflation was flat. So while retail prices were a concern, wholesale prices currently suggest a muted effect from tariffs.^8,9

The second theme revolved around consumers, who continued to be a source of strength for the economy. Retail sales recovered in June, and while they were still lower than at year-end, consumer sentiment rose to its highest level since February.¹⁰

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, July 18, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, July 18, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, July 14, 2025}
4. ^{WSJ.com, July 15, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, July 16, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, July 17, 2025}
7. ^{CNBC.com, July 18, 2025}
8. ^{WSJ.com, July 15, 2025}
9. ^{MarketWatch.com, July 16, 2025}
10. ^{MarketWatch.com, July 17, 2025}

Stocks were slightly lower last week, while looking past news of fresh U.S. tariffs on nearly two dozen countries.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.31 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index edged lower by 0.08 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.02 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slipped 0.43 percent.^1,2

The Return of the Tariffs

Stocks started the week lower after the White House posted letters to 14 countries announcing new tariffs, set to take effect August 1. They included 25 percent tariffs on South Korea and Japan.^3,4

Stocks dropped briefly midweek after the White House announced tariffs on seven additional countries. But as investors digested the news, markets gradually recovered, hoping the administration would dial back its steepest tariff rates again.

Markets also rallied on fresh AI trade enthusiasm and the latest Fed meeting minutes, which showed a majority of Committee members were open to adjusting interest rates later this year.^5,6

Markets opened higher on Thursday as investors shrugged off news of the 50 percent tariff on Brazil imports, announced shortly after Wednesday’s close. Momentum continued, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose to fresh records.⁷

Then, after Thursday’s close, the White House announced the U.S. was raising tariffs on Canadian imports to 35 percent and was preparing some other tariffs. Markets opened lower on Friday and trended sideways during the trading session.⁸

The T Word

While tariffs drove market headlines last week, another “t word” made news: trillion.

More specifically, $4 trillion in market capitalization. The nation’s largest AI chip maker was the first company to breach that market cap level. It crossed the $4 trillion mark intraday on Wednesday, then closed above it for the first time on Thursday’s close.^9,10

So why does it matter when one stock hits such a milestone? For a market-cap weighted index like the S&P 500, a company valued at $4 trillion has an outsized effect on the overall index’s performance. The largest five companies in the S&P 500 comprise about one-third of the benchmark index.^9,10

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, July 11, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, July 11, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, July 7, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, July 8, 2025}
5. ^{WSJ.com, July 9, 2025}
6. ^{MarketWatch.com, July 9, 2025}
7. ^{CNBC.com, July 10, 2025}
8.  ^{CNBC.com, July 11, 2025}
9. ^{WSJ.com, July 9, 2025}
10. ^{MarketWatch.com, July 10, 2025}

Trade developments and continued momentum pushed all three major averages to modest gains again for a shortened holiday trading week.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.72 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added 1.62 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2.30 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased 0.19 percent for the week through Thursday.^1,2

Stocks Gain on Trade Developments

Stocks continued their momentum from the prior week’s records following Canada’s rescinding of its digital services tax, rising on optimism as investors waited for more news on trade.³

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq took a breather on July’s first trading day, while the Dow Industrials posted a modest gain. Then, stocks rallied after the news of the trade deal with Vietnam, moving past the latest ADP employment report, which showed reduced jobs last month for the first time in two years.⁴

In a quick retort to the ADP report, a better-than-expected June jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics gave stocks another boost, reassuring investors that the U.S. economy was weathering trade and geopolitical shocks. The S&P and Dow hit record highs as the short trading week ended.⁵

Jobs Report Mostly Positive

The labor report for June had a few points for investors to cheer. First, employers added 147,000 jobs in June—that was 37,000 higher than economists were expecting. Unemployment ticked down to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent. Previously reported job gains from April and May were revised upward by 16,000.⁶

Still, companies are in a “no hire, no fire” mode as they wait to see how trade policy impacts the economy. Caveats to the headline numbers: most gains were seen in government and healthcare. Several other sectors, including manufacturing and professional services, were flat or diminished.⁶

The takeaway: good news overall, but uncertainty still lingers beneath the employment surface.

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, July 3, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, July 3, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, June 30, 2025}
4. ^{WSJ.com, July 2, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, July 3, 2025}
6. ^{WSJ.com, July 3, 2025}

Stocks staged a broad-based rally last week on investors’ hopes for a lasting Middle East ceasefire, hitting fresh record highs along the way.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 3.44 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added 4.25 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 3.82 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased 3.04 percent.^1,2

Stocks Push Higher

Last week opened with a rally powered by news of a tamer-than-expected escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Stocks continued their rise after this week’s ceasefire agreement, although Wall Street appeared concerned about whether the truce would remain in place.^3,4

Sentiment brightened after the White House played down the approaching July 8 tariff deadlines. Solid corporate earnings, a still-strong labor market, and a recovery in artificial intelligence-related stocks provided some underlying strength to the rally.⁵

As the week wrapped up, the S&P 500 hit its first new high since February—it marked the fastest-ever recovery from a 15-percent decline for the broad-market index. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also closed at an all-time high.^6,7

Economic Data Helped, Too

While trade and Middle East updates powered most of the markets’ rise last week, a few economic bits of news also contributed to the week-long rally. For example, consumer sentiment climbed 16 percent in May—its first increase in six months.^8,9

“The improvement was broadbased across numerous facets of the economy, with expectations for personal finances and business conditions climbing about 20% or more,” the University of Michigan said in a statement.

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, June 27, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, June 27, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, June 23, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, June 24, 2025}
5. ^{WSJ.com, June 18, 2025}
6. ^{WSJ.com, June 27, 2025}
7. ^{WSJ.com, June 27, 2025}
8. ^{WSJ.com, June 24, 2025}
9. ^{UMich.edu, June 27, 2025}

Stocks were mixed during the holiday-shortened trading week as uncertainty over conflict in the Middle East weighed on investors.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped by 0.15 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 0.21 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat (+0.02 percent). The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, declined 1.54 percent.^1,2

Stocks Rise, Then Slump

Stocks opened higher, and oil prices fell at the start of the week as investors hoped Middle Eastern tensions would ease.³

However, as investors parsed through updates on the conflict, stocks fell over ongoing uncertainty. Conflicting statements from those involved, as well as from world leaders, contributed to the uncertainty.⁴

Midweek, stocks rallied ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision. Markets seemed to dismiss news that housing starts dropped unexpectedly to their lowest level in five years.

The Fed held short-term rates steady. Stocks moved up and down during the Fed Chair’s press conference before ending the trading session slightly down ahead of Thursday’s stock market holiday.⁵

Following the holiday, anxious investors refocused on geopolitical tensions and developments. As the week closed out, investors appeared to take a risk-off approach heading into the weekend.⁶

The Fed Holds Rates Steady

As expected, the Federal Reserve kept the Fed funds rate at its target range of 4.25 percent and 4.5 percent. However, the central bank did suggest it may adjust rates later this year, and policymakers expressed concerns about inflation and the outlook for gross domestic product.

Following the decision, Fed Chair Powell said policymakers are “well positioned to wait” before moving on short-term rates. Powell indicated that trade policy has clouded the inflation outlook, making policymakers concerned about consumer prices.^7,8

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, June 20, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, June 20, 2025}
3. ^{MarketWatch.com, June 16, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, June 17, 2025}
5. ^{WSJ.com, June 18, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, June 20, 2025}
7. ^{MarketWatch.com, June 16, 2025}
8. ^{WSJ.com, June 18, 2025}

Stocks fell last week as an up-and-down mix of trade progress and anxiety, economic news, and geopolitical tensions netted out.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.39 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 0.63 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.32 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, edged down 0.18 percent.^1,2

Trade, Geopolitics Dominate Sessions

Stocks largely languished for the first half of the week as investors awaited news from U.S.-China trade talks and key inflation reports.^3,4

Sentiment began to rise late Tuesday afternoon following upbeat comments about trade talks. Most of the market gains came before the U.S. and China separately announced the trade update, with little reaction when markets opened the next day.⁴

Stocks peaked midweek, then declined despite a May report showing consumer inflation rose less than expected. Markets then trended a bit higher after a better-than-expected wholesale inflation report.⁵

Beginning Friday morning, all three averages were under pressure all day following news of an escalated conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices pushed higher on Friday on supply concerns.⁶

Brighter Notes

As the week ended with rising tensions in the Middle East, it was easy to overlook some good economic news.

First is inflation: both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed signs of cooling or holding steady. And both the CPI and PPI slightly beat expectations.

Second, consumers. Consumer sentiment jumped in May—the first such rise in six months. Economists took note, as consumer spending drives two-thirds of the U.S. economy.⁷

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, June 13, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, June 13, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, June 9, 2025}
4. ^{WSJ.com, June 10, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, June 12, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, June 13, 2025}
7. ^{WSJ.com, June 13, 2025}

Stocks rallied last week as investors responded to upbeat economic data and easing trade tensions.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 1.50 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.18 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.17 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, picked up 0.78 percent.^1,2

S&P 500 Closes Above 6,000 (Again)

Early in the week, markets notched steady gains as investors awaited key economic indicators and monitored ongoing trade discussions. Megacap tech names—particularly AI chipmakers—led the broader market higher, as sentiment stayed bullish on prospects for a U.S.-China trade deal.³

Midweek, however, concerns over tariffs and a notable decline in one megacap tech stock slowed overall market momentum. Recent conversations between the U.S. and Chinese leadership helped investors envision progress toward a trade deal between the two nations.^4,5

On Friday, stocks pushed higher following the release of the May jobs report, which showed an addition of 139,000 jobs, above expectations of 125,000. The S&P 500 closed above 6,000 for the first time since February—a key psychological hurdle for some market participants. And the Dow erased all its 2025 year-to-date losses.^6,7

Jobs & Trade

Amid considerable market noise, stocks pushed higher last week. Here are three takeaways:

• First, the upbeat jobs report was strong enough to ease some economic concerns.
• Second, the jobs report showed that the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 percent, and wage growth increased by 3.9 percent year-over-year. These figures also helped ease slowdown fears.⁷
• Last, despite some political squabbles, trade talks progressed this week, with the U.S. striking a deal with Germany while continuing to move forward with China.⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, June 6, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, June 6, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, June 3, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, June 5, 2025}
5. ^{MarketWatch.com, June 5, 2025}
6. ^{MarketWatch.com, June 6, 2025}
7. ^{WSJ.com, June 6, 2025}
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, June 6, 2025}

Stocks advanced over the short trading week, bolstered by a possible trade deal with the European Union (EU) and an upbeat corporate report from a mega-cap tech company that creates semiconductors used in the creation of artificial intelligence.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.87 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index popped 2.01 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.60 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, inched up 0.84 percent.^1,2

EU Trades Spark Stocks

On Monday, stocks bolted out of the gate on news that the European Union agreed to speed up trade talks with the U.S. By the end of the session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted gains north of 2 percent.³

Stocks fell following Wednesday’s release of minutes from the Fed meeting in May, which showed Fed officials are cautious. Some fear that trade-related economic uncertainty could increase inflation and impact the labor market.^4,5

On Friday, stocks were flat despite the White House accusing China of violating its trade deal. The S&P 500 added 6.2 percent and the Nasdaq 9.6 percent for the month, their best since November 2023.⁶

Inflation Update

The Fed’s preferred inflation measure—the Personal Consumption and Expenditures (PCE) Index—was released on Friday, showing only a modest uptick in prices in April.⁷

PCE increased 0.1 percent for the month, putting the annual rate at 2.1 percent—the lowest since September 2024.

On the Expenditures side, the report shows a higher consumer saving rate as they navigate economic uncertainty.⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, May 30, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, May 30, 2025}
3. ^{WSJ.com, May 27, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, May 28, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, May 29, 2025}
6. ^{WSJ.com, May 30, 2025}
7. ^{MarketWatch.com, May 30, 2025}
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, May 30, 2025}

Stocks moved lower last week as fiscal fears and fresh tariff threats loomed over market sentiment.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 2.61 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.47 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 2.47 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, advanced 1.14 percent.^1,2

Stocks Slip

On Monday, stocks were under a bit of pressure after credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded the U.S. as an issuer of government bonds.^3,4

Stocks remained under pressure midweek as Treasury yields moved higher with the 30-year bond hit a 19-month high. Investors fretted about the budget deficit; some feared the deficit would be made worse by the spending bill winding its way through Congress. After the House of Representatives approved the bill, bond yields backed off their highs and stocks went sideways.^5,6

On Friday, stocks dropped after President Trump warned of a 50 percent tariff on European Union goods following an apparent stall in trade negotiations. At the same time, the administration also threatened a 25 percent tariff on any iPhones manufactured outside of the U.S.⁷

Unexpected Tariff News

The president’s fresh tariff talk ended a week or so of relative tranquility on the trade front. While the EU tariff threat may end with a deal similar to deals with other countries and regions, the iPhone issue may prove stickier.

Some analysts estimate that making iPhones in the U.S. would increase manufacturing costs by as much as 50 percent, which might increase the price of an iPhone.⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, May 23, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, May 23, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, May 19, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, May 20, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, May 21, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, May 22, 2025}
7. ^{WSJ.com, May 23, 2025}
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, May 23, 2025}

Stocks roared higher last week, powered by upbeat trade news and tame inflation reports.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 5.27 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index spiked 7.15 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 3.41 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased 0.80 percent.^1,2

S&P, Dow Erase YTD Losses

Stocks pushed higher on Monday as investors cheered weekend news that the U.S. and China temporarily agreed to back off steep reciprocal tariffs.³

Then, a mild inflation report for April—the slowest annualized Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading in four years—boosted markets on Tuesday. Tech stocks powered the rally as the S&P 500 closed trading in the green for the year.^4,5

Markets closed the week with modest gains, largely looking past weak consumer sentiment data released on Friday.

Friday was the Dow’s turn to erase year-to-date losses and get back in the green while the Nasdaq and S&P notched a five-day winning streak.⁶

All Eyes on Economic Data

The retail (CPI) and wholesale inflation reports (Producer Price Index) were mild, although most economists didn’t expect tariffs to impact prices in the first month of implementation.

Retail sales ticked up slightly (as expected), while industrial production and housing starts showed signs of tariff impact.^7,8

Expect traders to continue to closely watch economic reports to better understand whether tariffs are showing up in the data.

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, May 16, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, May 16, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, May 12, 2025}
4. ^{WSJ.com,  May 13, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, May 15, 2025}
6. ^{MarketWatch.com, May 16, 2025}
7. ^{WSJ.com, May 13, 2025}
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, May 16, 2025}