Weekly Market Insights

Stocks moved lower last week as fiscal fears and fresh tariff threats loomed over market sentiment.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 2.61 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.47 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 2.47 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, advanced 1.14 percent.^1,2

Stocks Slip

On Monday, stocks were under a bit of pressure after credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded the U.S. as an issuer of government bonds.^3,4

Stocks remained under pressure midweek as Treasury yields moved higher with the 30-year bond hit a 19-month high. Investors fretted about the budget deficit; some feared the deficit would be made worse by the spending bill winding its way through Congress. After the House of Representatives approved the bill, bond yields backed off their highs and stocks went sideways.^5,6

On Friday, stocks dropped after President Trump warned of a 50 percent tariff on European Union goods following an apparent stall in trade negotiations. At the same time, the administration also threatened a 25 percent tariff on any iPhones manufactured outside of the U.S.⁷

Unexpected Tariff News

The president’s fresh tariff talk ended a week or so of relative tranquility on the trade front. While the EU tariff threat may end with a deal similar to deals with other countries and regions, the iPhone issue may prove stickier.

Some analysts estimate that making iPhones in the U.S. would increase manufacturing costs by as much as 50 percent, which might increase the price of an iPhone.⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, May 23, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, May 23, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, May 19, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, May 20, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, May 21, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, May 22, 2025}
7. ^{WSJ.com, May 23, 2025}
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, May 23, 2025}

Stocks roared higher last week, powered by upbeat trade news and tame inflation reports.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 5.27 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index spiked 7.15 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 3.41 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased 0.80 percent.^1,2

S&P, Dow Erase YTD Losses

Stocks pushed higher on Monday as investors cheered weekend news that the U.S. and China temporarily agreed to back off steep reciprocal tariffs.³

Then, a mild inflation report for April—the slowest annualized Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading in four years—boosted markets on Tuesday. Tech stocks powered the rally as the S&P 500 closed trading in the green for the year.^4,5

Markets closed the week with modest gains, largely looking past weak consumer sentiment data released on Friday.

Friday was the Dow’s turn to erase year-to-date losses and get back in the green while the Nasdaq and S&P notched a five-day winning streak.⁶

All Eyes on Economic Data

The retail (CPI) and wholesale inflation reports (Producer Price Index) were mild, although most economists didn’t expect tariffs to impact prices in the first month of implementation.

Retail sales ticked up slightly (as expected), while industrial production and housing starts showed signs of tariff impact.^7,8

Expect traders to continue to closely watch economic reports to better understand whether tariffs are showing up in the data.

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, May 16, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, May 16, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, May 12, 2025}
4. ^{WSJ.com,  May 13, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, May 15, 2025}
6. ^{MarketWatch.com, May 16, 2025}
7. ^{WSJ.com, May 13, 2025}
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, May 16, 2025}

Stocks were mixed last week as volatility dropped despite ongoing trade concerns and the Federal Reserve’s update on short-term rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.16 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.47 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 0.27 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 0.37 percent.^1,2

Stocks Go Sideways

Stocks dropped on Monday, ending the S&P 500’s 9-day winning streak as the trade anxiety weighed on investors.^3,4

Sentiment picked up midweek, however. In a widely expected move, the Fed held short-term interest rates steady but warned of lingering uncertainty around tariffs’ effects on inflation and unemployment.^5,6

On Thursday, the U.S.-U.K. trade deal sparked a slight rally, but stocks flattened as the week ended. Investors appeared to be risk-averse with U.S.-China trade talks scheduled for the weekend.⁷

The Fed Fans Out

The Federal Reserve wanted to get its message out last week. Within 48 hours of the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, nearly every Fed governor gave a solo speech or discussed the decision on a panel.

One Fed official spoke about the benefits of long-term stability from an independent Fed. At the same time, another said the Fed was paying close attention to what consumers did—and not just what they said, suggesting that flagging consumer sentiment didn’t necessarily mean a slowdown in spending.⁷

The Fed seemed to focus on managing expectations. Perhaps more importantly, Fed officials spoke from a coordinated playbook, possibly designed to help settle financial markets.

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, May 9, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, May 9, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, May 5, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, May 6, 2025}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, May 7, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, May 8, 2025}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, May 9, 2025}

Stocks pushed higher last week as investors cheered the White House’s constructive comments on trade, upbeat Q1 corporate reports, and an encouraging jobs report.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 2.92 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 3.42 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 3.00 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, advanced 2.56 percent.^1,2

Longest Winning Streak in 20 Years

During the first two trading days, stocks increased as investors responded favorably to White House comments on tariff deals.³

Then midweek—on the last day of the month—fresh data showed the economy contracted by 0.3 percent in Q1—the first decline in gross domestic product (GDP) in three years. Stocks initially fell on the news, but staged a stunning recovery to add a seventh day to the S&P 500’s and Dow Industrial’s winning streaks.⁴

Q1 corporate reports from a couple of mega-cap tech companies boosted all three major averages over the next session, with Nasdaq leading the rise. By Thursday’s close, Nasdaq had returned to its pre-April 2 levels.⁵

The rally accelerated on Friday as a better-than-expected April jobs report eased some concerns about the economy’s strength. Signs of a potential thaw in Washington-Beijing trade relations also boosted enthusiasm. The Dow Industrials rose for a ninth straight session, as did the S&P 500—its longest winning streak in 20 years.⁶

Solid Jobs Report

The April jobs report showed employers added 177,000 jobs last month—34,000 more than economists expected.

The report quieted talk about a recession, which was welcomed news. The April figure also showed the economy was still adding jobs despite a sluggish Q1 GDP report. However, the strong report did prompt some traders to push out expectations for an interest rate adjustment until the Fed’s July meeting.^7,8

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, May 2, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, May 2, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, April 29, 2025}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, May 1, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, May 2, 2025}
7. ^{MarketWatch.com, May 2, 2025}
8. ^{CNBC.com, May 2, 2025}

Stocks pushed higher last week, spurred by the White House’s reassuring comments that progress was being made with trade talks.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 4.59 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index picked up 6.73 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, adding 2.48 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased by 2.86 percent.^1,2

Markets Rally

Markets opened the week lower as investors continued to fret about China trade tensions. But sentiment quickly shifted.3

Stocks rebounded Tuesday following news that the administration intended to de-escalate tensions with China over tariffs. The rally extended through two more consecutive sessions as investors responded favorably to reassuring comments from the administration.

Markets also were encouraged after the president said he had “no intention” of firing the Fed Chair Powell. They also liked hearing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments that the U.S. had an “opportunity for a big deal” with a key trading partner.^4,5

Megacap tech stocks, which had been under pressure for several weeks, regained momentum during the week, leading the market’s advance.^6,7

Housing Market Update

Fresh housing data released last week showed the median price for a newly constructed home ($403,600) and an existing home ($403,700) were virtually identical in March.

This is unusual.

Typically, the average new home costs more than the average existing home. But last month, the median new-home price while the median existing-home price rose and hit a new all-time high.⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 25, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, April 25, 2025}
3. ^{MarketWatch.com, April 21, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, April 22, 2025}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, April 24, 2025}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 25, 2025} 
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, April 24, 2025}

Stocks ended the week with a strong gain as traders continued to focus on tariff talks while appearing to overlook upbeat news on inflation.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 5.70 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 7.29 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 4.95 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased by 0.72 percent.^1,2

Stocks Rebound

Stocks rallied on Monday after a report surfaced that the administration was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs. But when the White House clarified its position, sellers stepped in.

On Tuesday, prices jumped at the next opening bell after the Treasury Secretary said the U.S. was open to tariff negotiations with trading partners. The rally stalled and reversed on news the administration was adjusting tariffs on Chinese imports.³

After the White House announced a 90-day pause on specific tariffs on Wednesday, markets pushed higher. The S&P 500 gained 9.5 percent, its largest one-day increase in 17 years.⁴

Stocks fell again Thursday morning, appearing to overlook an upbeat Consumer Price Index report showing that core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose at a 2.8 percent annual rate–the best number in more than four years. Stocks finished the week with a powerful rally, capping a volatile trading week.^5,6.

Watching the Bond Market

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose more than 50 basis points for the week, marking one of the most significant moves on record. (When bond yields increase, bond prices tend to move lower.)

The week’s action was unexpected. In the past, investors have turned to U.S. bonds during market turbulence. However, the ongoing tariff talks have, at least temporarily, influenced how some overseas investors view U.S. bonds.^7,8

The bond market activity influenced the mortgage market, where the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage closed Friday at 7.1 percent, its highest level in two months.⁹

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 11, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, April 11, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, April 8, 2025}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 9, 2025}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 10, 2025}
6. ^{MarketWatch.com, April 11, 2025}
7. ^{WSJ.com, April 9, 2025}
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, April 9, 2025}
9. ^{CNBC.com, April 11, 2025}

Stocks fell broadly last week as domestic and foreign markets reacted to the White House’s tariffs.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 9.08 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 10.02 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 7.86 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 7.39 percent.^1,2

Under Pressure
Stocks rallied the first half of the week as markets tried to anticipate the potential impact of tariffs previously announced by the White House.³

Soon after the closing bell on Wednesday, President Trump’s new tariffs surprised markets. Global markets reacted to the news overnight.⁴

Markets opened lower on Thursday, and the selling continued through Friday. Treasuries rallied in a flight to quality as investors moved to the sidelines. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note closed Friday at 4.0 percent. Bond yields generally fall when bond prices rise.^5,6

Powell’s Speech

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave a previously scheduled and much-anticipated speech on Friday. He explained:

• The labor market is in good shape and not a significant source of inflation.
• Longer-term inflation expectations are “well anchored and consistent with our 2 percent inflation goal” – despite higher expectations for inflation over the short term.
• Regarding consumer sentiment, while consumers “may not feel great about the economy now, they still keep spending.” He added that the same happened during the pandemic.
• The Fed’s policy stance is “well positioned to wait for greater clarity… (on the likely effects of trade and fiscal policy, for example) before considering any changes in monetary policy.”⁷

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 4, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, April 4, 2025}
3. ^{MarketWatch.com, April 1, 2025}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 2, 2025}
5. ^{MarketWatch.com, April 3, 2025}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, April 4, 2025}
7. ^{MarketWatch.com, April 4, 2025}

Stocks moved lower last week as investors swung from exuberance to disappointment on news over tariffs and inflation.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.53 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index retreated 2.59 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.96 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, declined 1.29 percent.^1,2

An Up and Down Week
Stocks started the week with a sharp rally after the White House said it may “give a lot of countries breaks” on reciprocal tariffs. The positive momentum continued into Tuesday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 outpacing the Dow.³

Then, midweek, news that the White House was planning additional tariffs on all cars made outside the U.S. rattled markets.^4,5

On Friday, investors reacted to a warmer-than-expected inflation report and lower consumer sentiment, putting further pressure on stocks as the week closed.⁶

Noise vs Signal

There can be a lot of noise in the market from time to time. This can make it hard for investors to interpret information as they search for the actual signal.

Last week, investors were trying to interpret the White House decision to impose tariffs on all cars and some car parts made outside of the U.S. While some automakers are domestic and others are foreign-based, the question is whether companies will absorb the additional costs, pass them on to consumers, or look to build factories in the United States.⁷

Separating the noise from the signal may take time, which can be more challenging when the markets react to new tariff updates as they are announced.

 

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 28, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, March 28, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, March 25, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, March 26, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, March 27, 2025}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 28, 2025}
7. ^{MarketWatch.com, March 27, 2025}

Stocks notched a solid gain last week as upbeat comments from the Fed helped stocks snap their four-week losing streak.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.51 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index picked up 0.17 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led, gaining 1.20 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 0.75 percent.^1,2

A Solid Week

Stocks opened the week higher despite weaker-than-expected retail sales. On Tuesday, stocks pulled back on disappointing economic data and renewed Middle East tensions.^3,4

Stocks roared higher Wednesday as investors looked forward to the Federal Reserve’s meeting. As widely expected, the Fed kept rates steady, but Fed Chair Powell’s comments buoyed investors’ spirits.⁵

Stocks dipped Thursday and opened lower Friday, but investors showed some confidence by pushing prices higher into Friday’s close.⁶

The Fed Stays Positive

Amid all the market turbulence of late, the Fed was a steadying influence.

At his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Powell stressed that the economy remained strong and suggested that any impact from tariffs on inflation would be short-term.

But the primary reason investors cheered came down to this: most Fed officials still penciled in two interest rate cuts for this year. In late January, Powell said the central bank was in no hurry to adjust its policy stance, which unsettled the markets.⁷

^{Footnotes and Sources}

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 21, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, March 21, 2025}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 17, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, March 18, 2025}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 19, 2025}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 21, 2025}
7. ^{CNBC.com, March 18, 2025}

Investors endured another volatile, whipsaw week as ongoing trade talks and White House comments about the economy unsettled investors.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 2.27 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.43 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.07 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 0.95 percent.^1,2

Markets Stem Losses

Stocks opened the week lower as investors reacted to the president’s weekend comments about the economy. Then, U.S. and Canadian leaders traded additional tariff threats, riling up anxious investors.^3,4

Stocks rebounded midweek after a cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report eased growing inflation concerns.⁵

The broad market slide resumed Thursday, but better-than-expected February wholesale inflation data helped buffer losses. The S&P 500 ended Thursday in correction territory—10 percent below its February 19 record close.⁶

Markets pushed higher Friday, clawing back some losses for the week. News of progress in resolving the federal government shutdown soothed investors’ nerves.⁷

Sunny Side ‘Down’

Fewer CPI constituents garner more attention from consumers right now than the price of eggs. Avian bird flu—and the subsequent culling of millions of chickens—was primarily to blame for prices rising 15 percent in January and another 10 percent in February. While recent evidence suggests prices have dropped, the cost of eggs remains a sticky issue—even though prices of many other items have risen just as much, if not more.^8,9

So why do consumers appear to be overly uneasy?

One theory is that eggs symbolize something more significant. Not only are eggs a critical, inexpensive source of protein and nutrients for millions of consumers, but they are also a core part of many other foods made at home or mass-produced. For that reason, eggs are a mental proxy for how consumers believe the broader economy is doing.¹⁰

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 14, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, March 14, 2025}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 10, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, March 11, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, March 12, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, March 12, 2025}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 14, 2025}
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, March 12, 2025}
9. ^{Newsweek, March 11, 2025}
10. ^{MarketWatch.com, March 10, 2025}