Weekly Market Insights

Stocks continued their slide through a volatile week. U.S. trade policy drove much of the market’s movement, broadening investors’ concerns about economic growth and inflation.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 3.10 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 3.45 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 2.37 percent. By contrast, the MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rallied 2.85 percent.^1,2

Tariffs Take Effect

Big price swings and tariff uncertainty loomed over the entire week. Stocks opened lower out of the gate after the White House confirmed the planned 25 percent tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods would go forward. Soft manufacturing and construction data also put broad downward pressure on markets. Meanwhile, European stocks continued to rally on anticipated defense spending.³

Stocks fell further as tariffs affected Canada, Mexico, and China. Each country announced retaliatory tariffs of their own, further fanning inflationary fears among investors. By Tuesday’s close, all three averages were down 3 percent on the week, and the S&P had given up its post-election gains.⁴

Markets rebounded midweek after the White House announced a one-month reprieve from tariffs for North American automakers complying with the existing United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The recovery rally built momentum as the administration hinted that exemptions for other sectors could follow.⁵

However, as trade policy fatigue rose again, the rebound reversed—despite the White House pausing more tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports until April 2. Comments from the Treasury secretary defending U.S. tariffs and downbeat economic reports put further pressure on share prices. The Nasdaq entered correction territory, and for the first time in five years, the S&P 500 hit its sixth consecutive day of +/-1 percent price swings.⁶

Stocks continued to fall after an underwhelming February jobs report. Later, markets rebounded after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the economy “continues to be in a good place” and that the Fed was holding firm on current rates. The S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all finished Friday in the green despite being down for the week.⁷

Under the Hood

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) published fresh manufacturing data on Monday. Although headline numbers were decent, a closer look revealed that new orders dropped in January from a years-long high into correction territory while deliveries and prices paid jumped.⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 7, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, March 7, 2025}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 3, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, March 4, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, March 5, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, March 6, 2025}
7. ^{MarketWatch.com, March 7, 2025}
8. ^{The Wall Street Journal, March 4, 2025}

Stocks were mixed last week as investor concerns over inflation and trade policy combined to produce another volatile trading week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.95 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.98 percent. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index dropped an eye-catching 3.47 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 1.03 percent.^1,2

Trade Talk

The week began under pressure after the White House said 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada would begin after the 30-day pause ends in early March.

On Tuesday, S&P and Nasdaq stocks continued their slide on news that consumer confidence weakened more than expected. Concerns about inflation and tariffs merged with investors fretting over economic growth and global trade. It was the fourth straight day of declines for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The Dow, however, advanced for its third consecutive session.^3,4

After a quiet Wednesday, stock fell broadly on Thursday after the White House announced additional tariffs on goods from China and Europe. A large chipmaker prominent in artificial intelligence (AI) matters produced a mixed corporate report for Q4, which put some pressure on the broader market.^5,6

Friday’s news that inflation moderated boosted stocks, with prices accelerating higher into the close of trading. The Fed’s favorite core inflation measure hit 2.6 percent in January, which aligns with forecasts.⁷

Getting a Read on Tariffs

Markets dislike uncertainty, so steady trade talk produces volatile intra-week trading. Investors don’t know what tariffs will be enforced versus which ones are part of an ongoing negotiation, which can produce unsettling price swings.

S&P 500 companies echo some of that uncertainty. At last check, 146 have mentioned the term “tariff” or “tariffs” on Q4 conference calls with shareholders–the highest level since Q2 2019.⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 28, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, February 28, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, February 25, 2025}
4. ^{MarketWatch.com, February 25, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, February 26, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, February 27, 2025}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 28, 2025}
8. ^{Insight.FactSet.com, February 10, 2025}

Stocks fell last week as concerns about sticky inflation and the pace of economic growth rattled investors.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 1.66 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.51 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell 2.51 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, was essentially flat (+0.04 percent).^1,2

S&P 500 Hits New High, Then Slips

Following the Presidents’ Day holiday, stock prices were largely range-bound on Tuesday despite some intraday volatility. Then stocks edged higher, shaking off some new tariff talk and disappointing housing starts data. The S&P 500 marked its third record close of the year on Wednesday.^3,4

On Thursday, stocks were under pressure from the start of trading after a weaker-than-expected outlook from a mega-retailer. The update reinforced some concerns that the economy may be slowing. The selling accelerated on Friday after a consumer sentiment survey showed investors are unsettled about the inflation outlook.

Friday’s decline was the worst of the young year.⁵

Economic Jitters

Investors were forced to navigate a week of disappointing news about the economy and inflation.

First, traders were surprised to hear about slowing demand at the country’s biggest retailer, which soured the outlook for the consumer and the economy. Then, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey fell by 10 percent in February as consumers expressed concerns about higher inflation ahead of possible new tariffs.⁶

This combination prompted investors to move into a “risk-off” position before the weekend.

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 21, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, February 21, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, February 18, 2025}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 19, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, February 21, 2025}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 21, 2025}

Stocks advanced last week despite some intra-week volatility as investors showed concern about the economy’s strength.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.47 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index picked up 2.58 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.55 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, tacked on 2.53 percent.^1,2

The Fed Is in “No Hurry”

Stocks opened the week higher, quickly discounting news that the White House would impose 25 percent tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. Tuesday was a volatility session, punctuated by comments from Fed Chair Powell, who told lawmakers the central bank doesn’t “need to be in a hurry” to lower interior rates further.^3,4

Stocks opened lower Wednesday after a warmer-than-expected update on consumer prices. But stocks showed some resilience and rallied throughout the day. The Nasdaq managed to claw back its losses before Wednesday’s close.⁵

On Thursday, the White House announced a plan for reciprocal tariffs (levies on goods imported into the U.S. from countries that impose tariffs on U.S.-exported goods). But markets rallied on news that the administration would pause tariffs until they determine how much to levy on each country. Stocks took a breather on Friday, shrugging off a weaker-than-expected retail sales report.

The S&P ended shy of a record close, and the Nasdaq finished the week above the 20,000 mark.⁶

Inflation in Focus

The Consumer Price Index report showed prices rose 0.5 percent in January–slightly hotter than expected. Shelter costs remained elevated, increasing 0.4 percent for the month.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was also above forecast. Food prices rose 0.4 percent, pushed by a 15.2 percent increase in egg prices related to ongoing issues forcing farmers to cull chicken flocks. Energy prices picked up 1.1 percent as gasoline prices rose.^7,8

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 14, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, February 14, 2025}
3. ^{MarketWatch.com, February 10, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, February 11, 2025}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 12, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, February 14, 2025}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 12, 2025}
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, February 10, 2025} 

Stocks posted modest losses last week as tariff deals, January jobs data, and Q4 corporate reports injected volatility into markets.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.24 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 0.53 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.54 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, edged ahead 0.17 percent.^1,2

Tariffs, Q4 Reports, and Jobs

On Monday, stocks opened lower on news that tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China went into effect over the weekend. However, markets rebounded midmorning following news of a U.S.-Mexico deal that delayed new trade rules. News of a similar last-minute agreement with Canada followed.³

Stocks continued their rally midweek, led by technology stocks from companies that provided upbeat Q4 corporate reports.^4,5

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose for the third consecutive day on Thursday, while the Dow experienced a slight fall as investors digested more corporate earnings reports. The week closed on a down note as a mixed jobs report and a cautionary inflation outlook disappointed investors.^6,7

Mixed Signals on the Labor Market

As has happened several times in recent years, two job reports told conflicting stories about the state of the jobs market. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 143,000 jobs had been added for the month–a four-year low. Earlier in the week, the ADP report showed the economy added 188,000 new jobs, ahead of the 150,000 economists expected.^8,9

Why do the reports tell different stories? Economists point to various factors, including how January can be challenging to measure accurately, typically due to the more significant number of laid-off seasonal workers.¹⁰

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 7, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, February 7, 2025}
3. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 3, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, February 4, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, February 5, 2025}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 6, 2025}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 7, 2025}
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, February 4, 2025}
9. ^{MarketWatch.com, February 5, 2025}
10. ^{The Wall Street Journal, February 7, 2025}

Stocks rallied last week as investors reacted positively to a handful of better-than-expected corporate earnings reports and developments out of Washington, D.C.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.74 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added 1.65 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.15 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, added 3.03 percent.^1,2

Flurry of News

Markets surged over the first three trading days as investors cheered a flurry of new policy announcements and executive orders following Monday’s inauguration. For example, investors responded to news that the White House trade team is considering taking a softer stance on tariffs.³

It was also a good week for Q4 company reports and other upbeat corporate news.⁴

Markets leveled off Friday as investors were disappointed that existing home sales fell to a 30-year low. But for the week, the Nasdaq had closed above 20,000 on two of the four trading days, and the S&P 500 closed above 6,000 at every session.⁵

A Look Forward

The stock market is a discounting mechanism, meaning today’s stock prices reflect all available information, including present and potential future events. And for the most part, the markets reacted positively to the news coming out of Washington last week. Some news spurred broad-based market moves, while other news had more sector-specific impacts.⁶

For example, on Thursday, markets reacted positively to news that the White House believes interest rates were too high and want to see rates trend lower. The Fed’s first scheduled two-day policy meeting ends on Wednesday, so investors may be looking to see if Fed Chair Jerome Powell addresses the new administration’s concerns.

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, January 24, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, January 24, 2025}
3. ^{MarketWatch.com, January 21, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, January 22, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, January 24, 2025}
6. ^{The Wall Street Journal, January 21, 2025}

Stocks roared back last week, fueled by upbeat Q4 corporate reports and economic news that stalled inflationary fears.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 2.91 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 2.45 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led, picking up 3.69 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, added 2.00 percent.^1,2

Goldilocks is Back

The “Goldilocks” narrative—an economy that’s neither too hot nor too cold—made a comeback last week.

Tuesday’s Producer Price Index report showed that wholesale prices rose less than expected in December—one piece of evidence suggesting a cooling economy.³

Stocks jumped out of the gate Wednesday after the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed core inflation (minus volatile energy and food prices) rose less than expected. Investors also cheered Q4 reports from a handful of money center banks and positive news out of the Middle East.⁴

Stocks took a breather Thursday before pushing higher again on Friday.⁵

The S&P and Dow Industrials had their best week since early November, and the Nasdaq saw its best weekly performance since early December. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell roughly 20 basis points over the week.^6,7

Slowing Inflation

Investors welcomed the inflation reports, believing wholesale and consumer prices might trend lower in 2025.

First, producer prices came in at 0.2 percent, which was less than the 0.4 percent increase anticipated. Then consumer prices came in at 2.9 percent, slightly elevated, but the real story was core inflation. When you subtract out food and gas prices, CPI saw its smallest monthly increase since July.⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, January 17, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, January 17, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, January 14, 2025}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, January 15, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, January 17, 2025}
6. ^{MarketWatch.com, January 17, 2025}
7. ^{CNBC.com, January 17, 2025}
8. ^{The Wall Street Journal, January 15, 2025}

Stocks fell for the second consecutive week as a round of fresh economic data stoked inflationary fears among investors.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 1.94 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.34 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.86 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slipped 0.49 percent.^1,2

Inflation Stymies Markets

Stocks rallied broadly to start the week, but two economic reports on Tuesday—job openings and the prices-paid index among service companies—raised fresh inflation concerns. Higher Treasury yields also put pressure on stocks.^3,4

Stocks flattened out on Wednesday. Investors reacted to news that most Federal Open Market Committee members agreed inflation risks had increased, per minutes from the Fed’s December meeting.^5,6

U.S. stock markets were closed Thursday in observance of President Jimmy Carter’s funeral.

On Friday, a warmer-than-expected December jobs report caused investors to question whether the Fed will adjust rates in 2025. News that consumer sentiment ticked down also pushed stocks lower.⁷

When Good Becomes Bad News

The economy added 256,000 jobs in December—100,000 more than economists expected. That’s the second-highest monthly job gain for 2024. Unemployment ticked down to 4.1 percent, which was also better than anticipated.

Job growth and lower unemployment signals good news for the economy but bad news for the markets. A stronger jobs market puts less pressure on the Fed to adjust rates, especially with inflation top-of-mind among investors.^8,9

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, January 10, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, January 10, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, January 6, 2025}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, January 7, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, January 8, 2025}
6. ^{MarketWatch.com, January 8, 2025}
7. ^{CNBC.com, January 10, 2025}
8. ^{The Wall Street Journal, January 10, 2025}
9. ^{TradingEconomics.com, January 10, 2025}

Stocks edged lower last week despite a powerful end-of-week rally.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.48 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index slid 0.51 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.60 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, dropped 0.90 percent.^1,2

Selling Then Buying

Stocks were under pressure right out of the gate on Monday for no apparent reason other than worries over the loss of year-end momentum. By the end of trading on Monday, markets recovered some losses, but the selling picked up again on Tuesday.^3,4

After being closed for the New Year’s holiday, stocks opened higher for the first trading day of 2025. But sellers gained the upper hand by the end of trading. On Friday, Investors perked up with tech stocks leading a recovery rally that erased most of the week’s losses.^5,6

Megacap’s Mega Influence

Megacap tech stocks have captured many headlines over the last two years as the S&P 500 posted double-digit returns (24 percent for 2023 and 23 percent for 2024).

And for a good reason—megacap tech stocks were doing most of the work. For example, during the past 12 months of trading, more than half (53 percent) of the S&P 500’s return can be attributed to the Magnificent Seven–the seven megacap tech companies that most investors would consider household names.⁷

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, January 3, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, January 3, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, December 30, 2024}
4. ^{The Wall Street Journal, December 31, 2024}
5. ^{CNBC.com, January 2, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, January 3, 2025}
7. ^{The Wall Street Journal, December 31, 2024}
8. ^{IRS.gov, October 2, 2024}

Stocks notched a slight gain over the holiday week. A tech-driven rally in the first half of the week was clawed back in the second half as investors took profits following the market holiday.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.67 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.76 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.35 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 1.54 percent.^1,2

Ho-Ho, Then No-Go

Stocks rallied during the first half of a shortened holiday trading week. Holiday cheer won out despite news of declining consumer confidence in December, a drop in durable goods, and new home sales reporting below expectations.^3,4

The “Santa rally” lost its ho-ho-go after the midweek holiday. Megacap technology stocks led markets down on Friday, giving back most of the gains from the first half of the week.^4,5

The Real Santa

While Santa got the headlines, the consumer drove the holiday shopping sleigh this year.

Holiday spending—defined by the period from November 1 through December 24—rose 3.8 percent in 2024, compared with 3.1 percent in 2023. Economists closely follow consumer activity since consumer spending makes up roughly two-thirds of total gross domestic product. Market watchers attributed the strong job market and growth in household wealth as the primary drivers of consumer strength.⁶

Footnotes And Sources

1. ^{The Wall Street Journal, December 27, 2024}
2. ^{Investing.com, December 27, 2024}
3. ^{MarketWatch.com, December 23, 2024}
4. ^{CNBC.com, December 26, 2024}
5. ^{The Wall Street Journal, December 27, 2024}
6. ^{MarketWatch.com, December 26, 2024}