Posts made in July 2025

Expectation-beating Q2 results from several companies, trade updates, and investor optimism for more trade agreements pushed market averages to solid gains.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 1.46 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added 1.02 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.26 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 2.16 percent.^1,2

Earnings, Trade Lift Markets

Stocks showed mixed results the first couple of days last week. Optimism around the Q2 corporate reporting season gave way to mostly positive market reaction as the actual corporate reports started to roll in. The S&P 500 edged ahead to two record closes despite pressure on chipmakers.³

Trade negotiations took center stage midweek after the White House announced an agreement with Japan. Stocks extended the rally after news that the U.S. and European Union were approaching an agreement. The Nasdaq closed above 21,000 for the first time on Wednesday, while the S&P hit its 12th record close this year.⁴

Stocks continued their climb after one megacap tech firm posted better-than-expected quarterly results. The S&P 500 logged record closing highs every session, while the Nasdaq closed at record highs on 4 of the 5 days.^5,6

A Tale of Two Houses, Times Two

When fresh housing data emerged this week, one number stood out: new homes are now nearly 8 percent cheaper than existing homes.

The median sales price of a new home in June was $401,800, compared with $435,300 for an existing home—an all-time high. Homebuilders have been reducing prices in an attempt to attract potential buyers.⁷

But there’s another tale of two houses: national versus regional.

Existing home prices rose 2.7 percent last month over May. In the Northeast, where inventory is still constrained, prices rose 4.2 percent in June. However, the market is softening in many other regions of the country. In the South, for example, prices only rose 0.3 percent. Homes stay on the market for longer, and inventory rises, leading some to conclude that it’s a buyer’s market.⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, July 25, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, July 25, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, July 22, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, July 23, 2025}
5. ^{WSJ.com, July 24, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, July 25, 2025}
7. ^{MarketWatch.com, July 24, 2025}
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, July 23, 2025}

Stocks were mixed last week, battling through tariff talk while responding to upbeat quarterly corporate reports and a trove of updates on the economy.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.59 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added 1.51 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.07 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, skidded 0.46 percent.^1,2

Economic News

All three major market averages posted modest gains to start the week as investors appeared to shrug off tough talk on trade from the White House over the weekend.³

Stocks mostly fell after news that inflation warmed up a bit last month, albeit in line with economists’ expectations. A narrow, chip-led rally developed after a megacap chipmaker said it received assurances from the White House of its ability to sell products in China, pushing the Nasdaq modestly higher.⁴

Stocks continued their climb over the next session following news that consumer spending rebounded last month as trade talk slowed. The S&P 500 posted another record close amid several companies beating expectations as they reported quarterly financials.^5,6

Markets went slightly lower on Friday despite news that consumer sentiment rose last month. The consumer sentiment report also showed a drop in concerns about tariff-induced inflation.⁷

Splitting the Difference

Two themes developed with fresh economic data released last week: inflation and consumers.

First, June inflation data painted a mixed picture. While consumer prices rose at a 2.7 percent annual clip last month (faster than May’s 2.4 percent rate), wholesale inflation was flat. So while retail prices were a concern, wholesale prices currently suggest a muted effect from tariffs.^8,9

The second theme revolved around consumers, who continued to be a source of strength for the economy. Retail sales recovered in June, and while they were still lower than at year-end, consumer sentiment rose to its highest level since February.¹⁰

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, July 18, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, July 18, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, July 14, 2025}
4. ^{WSJ.com, July 15, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, July 16, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, July 17, 2025}
7. ^{CNBC.com, July 18, 2025}
8. ^{WSJ.com, July 15, 2025}
9. ^{MarketWatch.com, July 16, 2025}
10. ^{MarketWatch.com, July 17, 2025}

Stocks were slightly lower last week, while looking past news of fresh U.S. tariffs on nearly two dozen countries.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.31 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index edged lower by 0.08 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.02 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slipped 0.43 percent.^1,2

The Return of the Tariffs

Stocks started the week lower after the White House posted letters to 14 countries announcing new tariffs, set to take effect August 1. They included 25 percent tariffs on South Korea and Japan.^3,4

Stocks dropped briefly midweek after the White House announced tariffs on seven additional countries. But as investors digested the news, markets gradually recovered, hoping the administration would dial back its steepest tariff rates again.

Markets also rallied on fresh AI trade enthusiasm and the latest Fed meeting minutes, which showed a majority of Committee members were open to adjusting interest rates later this year.^5,6

Markets opened higher on Thursday as investors shrugged off news of the 50 percent tariff on Brazil imports, announced shortly after Wednesday’s close. Momentum continued, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose to fresh records.⁷

Then, after Thursday’s close, the White House announced the U.S. was raising tariffs on Canadian imports to 35 percent and was preparing some other tariffs. Markets opened lower on Friday and trended sideways during the trading session.⁸

The T Word

While tariffs drove market headlines last week, another “t word” made news: trillion.

More specifically, $4 trillion in market capitalization. The nation’s largest AI chip maker was the first company to breach that market cap level. It crossed the $4 trillion mark intraday on Wednesday, then closed above it for the first time on Thursday’s close.^9,10

So why does it matter when one stock hits such a milestone? For a market-cap weighted index like the S&P 500, a company valued at $4 trillion has an outsized effect on the overall index’s performance. The largest five companies in the S&P 500 comprise about one-third of the benchmark index.^9,10

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, July 11, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, July 11, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, July 7, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, July 8, 2025}
5. ^{WSJ.com, July 9, 2025}
6. ^{MarketWatch.com, July 9, 2025}
7. ^{CNBC.com, July 10, 2025}
8.  ^{CNBC.com, July 11, 2025}
9. ^{WSJ.com, July 9, 2025}
10. ^{MarketWatch.com, July 10, 2025}

Trade developments and continued momentum pushed all three major averages to modest gains again for a shortened holiday trading week.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.72 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added 1.62 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2.30 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased 0.19 percent for the week through Thursday.^1,2

Stocks Gain on Trade Developments

Stocks continued their momentum from the prior week’s records following Canada’s rescinding of its digital services tax, rising on optimism as investors waited for more news on trade.³

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq took a breather on July’s first trading day, while the Dow Industrials posted a modest gain. Then, stocks rallied after the news of the trade deal with Vietnam, moving past the latest ADP employment report, which showed reduced jobs last month for the first time in two years.⁴

In a quick retort to the ADP report, a better-than-expected June jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics gave stocks another boost, reassuring investors that the U.S. economy was weathering trade and geopolitical shocks. The S&P and Dow hit record highs as the short trading week ended.⁵

Jobs Report Mostly Positive

The labor report for June had a few points for investors to cheer. First, employers added 147,000 jobs in June—that was 37,000 higher than economists were expecting. Unemployment ticked down to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent. Previously reported job gains from April and May were revised upward by 16,000.⁶

Still, companies are in a “no hire, no fire” mode as they wait to see how trade policy impacts the economy. Caveats to the headline numbers: most gains were seen in government and healthcare. Several other sectors, including manufacturing and professional services, were flat or diminished.⁶

The takeaway: good news overall, but uncertainty still lingers beneath the employment surface.

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, July 3, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, July 3, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, June 30, 2025}
4. ^{WSJ.com, July 2, 2025}
5. ^{CNBC.com, July 3, 2025}
6. ^{WSJ.com, July 3, 2025}

Stocks staged a broad-based rally last week on investors’ hopes for a lasting Middle East ceasefire, hitting fresh record highs along the way.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 3.44 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added 4.25 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 3.82 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased 3.04 percent.^1,2

Stocks Push Higher

Last week opened with a rally powered by news of a tamer-than-expected escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Stocks continued their rise after this week’s ceasefire agreement, although Wall Street appeared concerned about whether the truce would remain in place.^3,4

Sentiment brightened after the White House played down the approaching July 8 tariff deadlines. Solid corporate earnings, a still-strong labor market, and a recovery in artificial intelligence-related stocks provided some underlying strength to the rally.⁵

As the week wrapped up, the S&P 500 hit its first new high since February—it marked the fastest-ever recovery from a 15-percent decline for the broad-market index. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also closed at an all-time high.^6,7

Economic Data Helped, Too

While trade and Middle East updates powered most of the markets’ rise last week, a few economic bits of news also contributed to the week-long rally. For example, consumer sentiment climbed 16 percent in May—its first increase in six months.^8,9

“The improvement was broadbased across numerous facets of the economy, with expectations for personal finances and business conditions climbing about 20% or more,” the University of Michigan said in a statement.

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, June 27, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, June 27, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, June 23, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, June 24, 2025}
5. ^{WSJ.com, June 18, 2025}
6. ^{WSJ.com, June 27, 2025}
7. ^{WSJ.com, June 27, 2025}
8. ^{WSJ.com, June 24, 2025}
9. ^{UMich.edu, June 27, 2025}