Posts made in November 2025

Heightened volatility was on Wall Street’s mind last week, as investors continued to focus on valuations of artificial intelligence (AI) stocks.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.95 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 2.74 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.91 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slumped 3.25 percent.^1,2

AI Valuation Worries 

Stocks slid over the first half of the week as anticipation continued to build for Q3 results from one of the largest AI megacap tech stocks, due out midweek.

While the decline was led by megacap tech stocks, which typically drag down both the Nasdaq and S&P 500, the Dow Industrials also fell. With the government still playing catch-up on a backlog of economic reports following the shutdown, investors kept a close eye on big consumer-related stocks for insights into the economy.³

Then midweek, all three major averages rebounded, with the S&P snapping a four-day losing streak. Sentiment improved as investors turned more positive about another AI firm’s quarterly report due out after Wednesday’s closing bell.⁴

That firm’s results helped boost stocks after the opening bell on Thursday, but prices retreated quickly as investor anxiety built over whether the Fed would adjust rates next month. The Fed’s October meeting minutes revealed divisions among the Committee’s voting members. Additionally, the Labor Department’s September jobs report painted a mixed employment picture, which might complicate the Fed’s decision.⁵

Stocks rebounded on Friday after New York Fed President John Williams seemed to reassure investors that a rate adjustment at the Fed’s December meeting was still a possibility. The bounce was jagged, as the rebound had to battle through disappointing economic data on consumer sentiment and manufacturing activity.⁶

More Jobs, but Higher Jobless Rate

The delayed September jobs report came out last week, and showed employers added 119,000 jobs—the strongest monthly gain since April and a rebound from August’s loss of 4,000 jobs (which was later revised to a 22,000 gain). The jobs report was among the first post-shutdown reports to be published by the Labor Department.

The unemployment rate in September rose to 4.4 percent, higher than the 4.3 percent economists expected. It was the highest number in four years.

This was the Labor Department’s last monthly employment report before the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on December 9-10.⁷

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, November 21, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, November 21, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, November 18, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, November 19, 2025}  
5. ^{WSJ.com, November 20, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, November 21, 2025}
7. ^{WSJ.com, November 20, 2025}

Stocks ended mixed after a nail-biting week for investors, who grew anxious over megacap tech valuations and interest rates as the government shutdown came to an end.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index edged up 0.08 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 0.45 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.34 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, advanced 1.63 percent.^1,2

Rotating into Value

The week began with stocks rising, fueled by hopes that the longest-ever government shutdown could soon end as a federal funding bill moved closer to Congressional approval. Building on these early gains, the Nasdaq advanced more than 2 percent and the S&P 500 added 1½ percent.³

Stocks rose at the opening bell on Tuesday following news that the Senate had passed a bill to end the shutdown, but sentiment quickly turned as tech stocks pulled down the Nasdaq and S&P. Meanwhile, the Dow rose modestly. However, by midday, sentiment shifted positively, and the Dow and S&P 500 closed in the green.⁴

Midweek, growing conviction that the government would reopen continued to push the Dow Industrials higher. As a result, the Dow achieved its first record close above 48,000, with the S&P remaining flat and the Nasdaq slipping. Once the government reopened Thursday morning, attention quickly turned to tech valuations and an earnings miss from a large entertainment conglomerate. This shift also prompted investors to worry whether the Fed would adjust interest rates next month. Despite a brief dip as the week concluded, markets stabilized, with the Nasdaq and S&P recovering near the flatline, while the Dow lagged slightly.^5,6,7

Restarting the Data Engine

It takes time to get a tanker ship up and running again after a full stop. That’s what the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is doing now, as the government stats engine resumes.

Using the last government shutdown (in 2013) as a baseline, about half of the BLS reports that have not yet been published could be ready by the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on December 9-10. The remainder of the backlogged reports (including October reports) are estimated to be published on a rolling basis through mid-January.⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, November 14, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, November 14, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, November 10, 2025}  
4. ^{CNBC.com, November 11, 2025} 
5. ^{CNBC.com, November 12, 2025}
6. ^{WSJ.com, November 13, 2025}
7. ^{CNBC.com, November 14, 2025}
8. ^{MarketWatch.com, November 11, 2025}

Stocks hit a rough patch last week as fresh labor market data, low consumer sentiment, and the ongoing government shutdown unnerved investors.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 1.63 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 3.04 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.21 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, edged down 0.83 percent.^1,2

Nasdaq’s Toughest Week Since April

Stocks started the week mixed. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose modestly, while the Dow Industrials fell.^3,4

Markets stabilized midweek after an ADP jobs report showed stronger-than-expected hiring by private employers in October. The report buoyed investor sentiment, pushing all three major averages higher.⁵

However, stocks fell as investor concerns over stock valuations persisted, particularly among companies related to AI. Following a well-known outplacement firm’s report of a steep increase in corporate layoffs, selling pressure intensified as investors continued to react to data updates from alternative sources in the absence of official government data.

Stocks slid again on Friday after news that consumer sentiment hit its lowest level in three years. The survey data appeared to exacerbate investor nerves about the reading’s connection to a fragile labor market and the impacts of the government shutdown.

But all three major averages then began a recovery rally midday Friday, with the S&P and Dow Industrials climbing back into the green and the Nasdaq regaining nearly all of its losses by the closing bell.⁶

Labor Market Paradox

Payroll processing company ADP’s monthly employment report has become a prominent alternative source for jobs data in the wake of the government shutdown. However, it doesn’t always tell the whole story.

ADP’s latest jobs report showed private employers hired at a much stronger pace than expected in October. U.S. companies added 42,000 jobs in October, nearly double the 22,000 new jobs economists expected. Given that 29,000 jobs went away in September, the October figure was welcome news for investors; it was also the first increase in three months. The bulk of the job gains came from the trade, transportation, utilities, education, and health sectors.⁷

Other data out last week told a different story. Another report showed layoff announcements in October hit a 22-year high for the month, making this year the worst for layoffs since 2009.^8,9

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, November 7, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, November 7, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, November 3, 2025}  
4. ^{CNBC.com, November 4, 2025} 
5. ^{WSJ.com, November 5, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, November 7, 2025}
7. ^{WSJ.com, November 5, 2025}
8. ^{CNBC.com, November 6, 2025}
9. ^{CNBC.com, November 7, 2025}

Stocks rose last week as trade developments, positive Q3 corporate results, and momentum in megacap tech drove another rally, despite some cautious comments from the Fed.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.71 percent, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index picked up 2.24 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.75 percent. By contrast, the MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 0.55 percent.^1,2

Stocks Up for Third Straight Week

Stocks rose over the first half of the week on news that Chinese and U.S. officials were working on a trade deal. Meanwhile, a rise in AI-related tech names lifted the broader market ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. All three major averages notched record closing highs for the first two days of the week, including the S&P 500 closing above 6800 for the first time.^3,4

Stocks continued their rise Wednesday morning as the AI trade continued to fuel momentum. But markets wobbled following the FOMC’s decision to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point. Chair Powell’s comments that the Fed may not adjust rates in December cut short the market’s rally.^5,6

Stocks bounced out of the gate on Friday, with the Nasdaq leading gains for all three major averages as several megacap tech companies rallied on upbeat Q3 results and other corporate news.⁷

‘Not a Foregone Conclusion’

As widely expected, the Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates by 0.25 percent. But as often happens for those trying to read the Fed tea leaves, it was the finer messaging points that moved the markets.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his post-meeting press conference that another rate adjustment in December was “not a foregone conclusion.” He added that Fed policy is “not on a pre-set course.” Part of that, he said, was due to the ongoing government shutdown and the resulting dearth of economic data—and the challenge in setting monetary policy without ongoing reports.⁸

Footnotes and Sources

1. ^{WSJ.com, October 31, 2025}
2. ^{Investing.com, October 31, 2025}
3. ^{CNBC.com, October 27, 2025}
4. ^{CNBC.com, October 28, 2025}
5. ^{WSJ.com, October 29, 2025}
6. ^{CNBC.com, October 30, 2025}
7. ^{CNBC.com, October 31, 2025}
8. ^{WSJ.com, October 29, 2025}