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Filing your taxes shouldn’t be stressful and confusing. The IRS provides online tools and resources to help make taxes less taxing.

Here are the agency’s most popular:

• IRS Free File allows you to prepare and file your taxes online. IRS Free File is free to anyone with incomes below $66,000. Learn more at https://www.irs.gov/filing/e-file-options.
• Direct Deposit provides you with the opportunity to get your refund more quickly and to have it electronically deposited into your bank account. Go to https://www.irs.gov/refunds/get-your-refund-faster-tell-irs-to-direct-deposit-your-refund-to-one-two-or-three-accounts.
• Where’s My Refund? tells you the status of your refund after you’ve filed your return. The IRS2Go mobile app allows you to monitor your refund on your phone. Visit https://www.irs.gov/refunds.
• IRS Direct Pay allows you to pay a tax bill from your bank account. For more information, go to https://www.irs.gov/payments.
• IRS.gov/account lets you monitor your tax balance. It also permits you to pay your balance online. Go to https://www.irs.gov/payments/view-your-tax-account.
• Online Payment Agreement allows you to apply for an installment agreement online if you’re unable to pay your taxes all at once. Visit https://www.irs.gov/payments/online-payment-agreement-application.

Other details may apply, and you can find more information on the IRS website.

* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov[15]

[15] www.irs.gov/newsroom/taxpayers-should-check-out-these-helpful-tax-tools

Volatility was back in full force last week. The three major domestic indexes posted several days of losses before experiencing wide swings on Friday. By week’s end, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which investors use to help measure fear in the markets, had increased by approximately 70%. The VIX also reached its highest point since February.[1]

Despite a number of equities posting last-minute gains on Friday, all three domestic indexes had sizable losses for the week. In fact, they posted their worst weekly performance since March.[2]  The S&P 500 dropped 4.10%, the Dow declined 4.19%, and the NASDAQ gave back 3.74%.[3] International stocks in the MSCI EAFE also lost ground, decreasing 3.96%.[4] 

What drove market performance last week? 

As is typically the case, a number of details affected investor sentiment and behavior. The following topics were among the perspectives impacting performance:

• Rising interest rates: In addition to the Fed’s interest rate increases, 10-year Treasury yields are on many investors’ minds. At one point last week, the 10-year reached its highest yields since 2011.[5]  As interest from banks and bonds rise, some investors exit the markets in search of more predictable returns. These moves can cause stock prices to drop.[6]  However, we want to remind you of what we wrote about last week: Rising rates may bring their own risks, but they are a sign that the economy is growing.[7] 
• Falling tech prices: Technology companies have been the best market performers in 2018. However, the sector just experienced its worst weekly results since this spring.[8]  With this shift in industry performance, some market participants have begun searching for different ways to invest their money.[9]
• Ongoing trade tension: While many analysts believe interest rates and tech prices drove last week’s losses, some feel that our trade renegotiation with China is to blame.[10]  We do not yet know how this skirmish will resolve, but tariffs do have the possibility to slow economic growth and increase prices for consumers.[11] 

These concerns and perspectives are important, but they do not give a complete understanding of our current economic conditions. Consumer sentiment remains high, and the latest corporate earnings season is likely to show strong, double-digit earnings growth for companies.[12] 

We know that volatility can feel uncomfortable, but it is normal. In the past 38 years, the markets have averaged a 13.8% intra-year decline – yet 29 of those years had positive returns.[13] 

As always, we are continuing to monitor economic fundamentals and investor perspectives to find a clear view of where we are today, and what may be ahead. If you have any questions, we are here for you.

[1] www.cnbc.com/2018/10/12/us-markets-data-and-bank-earnings-in-focus.html

[2] www.cnbc.com/2018/10/12/us-markets-data-and-bank-earnings-in-focus.html

[3] http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=SPX®ion=usa&culture=en-US

http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=!DJI®ion=usa&culture=en-US

http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=@CCO

[4] www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search

[5] www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-12/another-gut-wrenching-week-puts-2018-stocks-in-with-bad-company?srnd=markets-vp

[6] www.forbes.com/sites/markavallone/2018/10/11/5-reasons-why-higher-interest-rates-matter/#50fabc87577d

[7] www.investopedia.com/investing/how-interest-rates-affect-stock-market/

[8] www.cnbc.com/2018/10/12/us-markets-data-and-bank-earnings-in-focus.html

[9] www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-12/another-gut-wrenching-week-puts-2018-stocks-in-with-bad-company?srnd=markets-vp

[10] fortune.com/2018/10/11/trump-federal-reserve-powell-lagarde-carney/

[11] www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-war-tariffs-china-effect-2018-10

[12] wsj-us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=485860&cust=wsj-us&year=2018&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

www.cnbc.com/2018/10/12/us-markets-data-and-bank-earnings-in-focus.html

[13] am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/gim/adv/insights/guide-to-the-markets/viewer  [p.14]

That big tax return may have allowed you to pay bills, build your savings, or buy something you’ve wanted for some time. With passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in late 2017, the tax code changed, making potentially for an even rosier tax picture for some at the end of this year.

However, the IRS urges taxpayers to get a paycheck checkup to ensure you don’t encounter any surprises come time for tax filing early in 2019.

A paycheck checkup will help make sure your employer is withholding the correct amount from your paycheck. Go to https://www.irs.gov/individuals/irs-withholding-calculator for more information.

Here are some of the changes in the law that may affect your taxes:

• The act lowered tax rates and changed tax brackets.
• Standard deductions nearly doubled to $24,000 for joint filers and $12,000 for singles.
• The act eliminated personal exemptions.
• The child tax credit is larger.
• The act added a credit for dependents who can’t be claimed with the child tax credit.

The calculator may help you determine the best withholding level to suit your needs.

For more information about withholdings and other tax changes, go to https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/tax-reform-resources.

Other details may apply, and you can find more information on the IRS website.

* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov[18]

[18] www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-tells-taxpayers-who-got-a-big-refund-to-do-a-paycheck-checkup

Although new data continued to show strength in the U.S. economy, markets stumbled across the globe last week.[1] The S&P 500 lost 0.98%, the Dow dropped 0.04%, and the NASDAQ declined 3.21%.[2] International stocks in the MSCI EAFE struggled, posting a 2.35% loss.[3]

While U.S. and international stocks followed similar paths last week, data is beginning to show that our economic outlooks may be very different for the moment.[4]

U.S. Strength in a Growing International Divide

The latest labor report helped underscore some of the differences between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world. While the data missed the mark for new jobs added, September marked the 96th-straight month of job growth – and the lowest unemployment level since 1969.[5] The report pushed interest rates higher, which contributed to last week’s equity losses.[6] 

However, when describing our economy, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it is experiencing “a particularly bright moment.”[7] 

Global Growth Adjustments

At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicated that it would decrease its global economic growth predictions. The IMF hasn’t downgraded its forecasts since 2016. Currently, more risks are beginning to emerge – from trade tension to political challenges in Europe.[8] In particular, the rise in oil prices, the U.S dollar, and interest rates are hurting emerging economies.[9] 

HSBC mirrored this divide, cutting its global economic outlook while upgrading U.S. numbers.[10]

A Look Ahead While Looking Back

As the labor market tightens, inflation could rise – bringing even more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.[11] While rising rates bring their own set of risks, they are ultimately a sign that the economy is growing. On the other hand, when the Fed lowers rates, they do so because the economy is slowing.[12]

This week, we mark the 11th anniversary of the markets hitting their highest pre-recession point on October 9, 2007.[13] At that time, hopes that the Fed would lower rates again contributed to the new record highs.[14] In the ensuing months, the Dow lost more than half its value as the Great Recession began.[15] 

While markets were down last week, they were still far ahead of their highs from 2007. The Dow closed at 14,164.43 on October 9, 2007 – and ended at 26,447.05 on October 5, 2018.[16] 

Investors have experienced quite a ride in the past 11 years, but the market’s long-term growth is undeniable. Risks are here, as they always are. But we are here to help you understand and navigate those risks, no matter what the markets bring.

[1] www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/stocks-fall-globally-after-u-s-jobs-data-treasury-yields-rise-again-idUSKCN1MF04H

[2] http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=SPX®ion=usa&culture=en-US

http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=!DJI®ion=usa&culture=en-US

http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=@CCO

[3] www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search

[4] www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-05/u-s-economy-isn-t-bright-enough-to-offset-global-growth-slowing?srnd=markets-vp

[5] www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/us-markets-jobs-report-and-rates-in-focus.html

www.nytimes.com/2018/10/05/business/economy/jobs-report.html

[6] www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/us-markets-jobs-report-and-rates-in-focus.html

[7] www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-05/u-s-economy-isn-t-bright-enough-to-offset-global-growth-slowing?srnd=markets-vp

[8] www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-05/u-s-economy-isn-t-bright-enough-to-offset-global-growth-slowing?srnd=markets-vp

[9] www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/stocks-fall-globally-after-u-s-jobs-data-treasury-yields-rise-again-idUSKCN1MF04H

[10] www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-05/u-s-economy-isn-t-bright-enough-to-offset-global-growth-slowing?srnd=markets-vp

[11] www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-05/u-s-economy-isn-t-bright-enough-to-offset-global-growth-slowing?srnd=markets-vp

[12] www.investopedia.com/investing/how-interest-rates-affect-stock-market/

[13] www.thebalance.com/stock-market-crash-of-2008-3305535

[14] money.cnn.com/2007/10/09/markets/markets_0500/index.htm?postversion=2007100917

[15] www.thebalance.com/stock-market-crash-of-2008-3305535

[16] www.thebalance.com/stock-market-crash-of-2008-3305535

New tax laws enacted in December 2017 extend the time allowed to file an administrative claim or sue for wrongful levy or seizure. The new limit is two years.

Here are the facts about levies and the time extension:

• The IRS can seize and sell property to pay a tax debt. “Property” is defined as wages, money in your bank account, vehicles, and real estate.
• The timeline applies to property the IRS has already sold.
• If you make an administrative claim against the IRS within the two years, the time period is extended for either one of two periods (whichever is shorter):
  • 12 months from the date of the claim filing.
  • Six months from the date the IRS disallowed the claim.

• The rule applies to tax levies made before, on, or after December 22, 2017, as long as the previous nine-month period (prior to the levy) hasn’t yet expired.
• If you receive a “Final Notice of Intent to Levy and Notice of Your Right to A Hearing,” contact the IRS immediately. This may allow you to make arrangements to pay the tax debt before the IRS proceeds with a property levy.

Other details may apply, and you can find more information on the IRS website.

* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov[20]

[20] www.irs.gov/newsroom/taxpayers-now-have-more-time-to-challenge-a-levy

Friday, September 28, was the last trading day in 2018’s 3rd quarter, and the S&P 500 posted its strongest quarterly return in nearly 5 years.[1] The Dow also showed impressive returns by beating expectations for the quarter, while the NASDAQ notched record highs against 2017 numbers. For the quarter, the S&P jumped 7.2%, the Dow increased 9.3%, and the NASDAQ moved up 7.1%.[2]

Weekly numbers, however, revealed mixed performances: the S&P 500 slipped 0.54%, the Dow fell 1.07%, and the NASDAQ gained 0.74%.[3] Internationally, the MSCI EAFE dropped 1.07%.[4]

As we learn more about the 3rd­ quarter, some details from last week offer perspectives on where we stand today.

What We Learned About the 3rd Quarter Last Week

1. Consumer outlook suggests positive trends continue.

A few early reports have given us a sense of positive trends in consumer activity during the 3rd quarter:

• Consumer sentiment rose in September to finish at healthy levels that beat August’s performance, marking the 3rd time the index has moved above 100.[5] With personal income optimism hitting a 14-year high, the positive trend suggests that nearly every population group now benefits from the 3rd quarter expansion.[6]
• Consumer confidence neared its highest reading since 2000, beating analyst predictions and inching closer to the dotcom’s record highs.[7] This rise came after a surge in August, prompting predictions that spending strength will carry us through 2018.[8] From sentiment boosts in the stock market to positive home-buying trends, consumers remain optimistic.[9]

These numbers suggest healthy consumer outlooks, positive economic attitudes, and possible trends in increased spending.[10]

2. Companies anticipate softer profits.

Although corporate earnings in the 1st and 2nd quarters rose roughly 25%, 3rd quarter corporate earnings may miss that mark. Of the 98 companies in the S&P 500 that have released earnings outlooks, 74 predicted that earnings will fall below expectations from Wall Street. This ratio is the worst since the earnings recession of 1st quarter 2016.[11] Even with the softer outlook, analysts still expect the S&P 500 to post numbers that indicate a growing economy.[12]

3. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth shows signs of slowing.

Core capital goods (not including aircrafts) dropped 0.5% in August after July’s negative performance – as demand for computers, electronic products, and motor vehicles waned. The shift prompted some analysts to revise their 3rd­ quarter GDP predictions downward. Yet, with a bump in wholesale and retail inventories, overall 3rd quarter growth remains in positive territory.[13] The Atlanta Federal Reserve now predicts growth to be 3.8%, revised from an earlier prediction of 4.4%.[14]

4. Tariffs start to drag 3rd quarter growth estimates.

The early effects of tariffs seem to have surfaced, as exports are now trending negatively. On September 27, the International Trade in Goods report posted numbers that may predict slower 3rd quarter growth:

• Exports dropped 1.6% in August, continuing July’s downward trend.
• Imports rose 0.7% yet have so far posted a trade negative for the quarter.
• The trade deficit hit $75.8 billion, yet analysts believe this gap will narrow slightly once more 3rd quarter data emerges.[15]

If this trend involving exports and imports continues, the U.S. dollar may take a hit.[16] Meanwhile, on September 24, President Trump added tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, and China responded with its own tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. products. Though negotiations between the two countries have stalled, we will monitor the situation.[17]

What’s Ahead

The Federal Reserve remained optimistic last week about the economy, raising the interest rate from 2% to 2.25%. The 3rd increase this year is no surprise but does suggest confidence in a growing economy and low unemployment numbers, and that a 4th quarter hike is highly probable.[18]

With new data coming in, we’ll deepen our understanding of the economy’s performance in the 3rd quarter. If you have questions about how this may affect you or your financial life, contact us today; we’re ready and happy to help.

[1] www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-futures-fall-dow-set-for-worst-week-in-three-months-2018-09-28

[2] www.cnbc.com/2018/09/28/us-markets-political-turmoil-and-data-take-center-stage.html

[3]  http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=SPX®ion=usa&culture=en-US

http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=%21DJI®ion=usa&culture=en-US

http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=@CCO

[4] https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search

[5] www.marketwatch.com/story/us-consumer-sentiment-cools-a-bit-in-late-september-2018-09-28

[6] mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=485859&cust=mam&year=2018&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

[7] mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=485922&cust=mam&year=2018&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

[8] www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-consumer-confidence-races-to-near-18-year-high-idUSKCN1LD201

[9] mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=485922&cust=mam&year=2018&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

[10] mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=485922&cust=mam&wiconly=1&lid=0#top

[11] www.cnbc.com/2018/09/26/companies-are-warning-about-declining-profits-and-that-could-be-the-catalyst-for-a-pullback.html

[12] www.marketwatch.com/story/this-trend-threatens-one-of-the-stock-markets-strongest-pillars-2018-09-26

[13] www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/us-capital-goods-orders-trade-data-temper-third-quarter-growth-forecasts-idUSKCN1M71PK

[14] money.cnn.com/2018/09/28/investing/stocks-markets-third-quarter/index.html

[15] mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=486154&cust=mam&year=2018&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

[16] mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=486154&cust=mam&wiconly=1&lid=0#top

[17] www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-24/trump-imposes-next-batch-of-china-tariffs-as-trade-war-escalates

[18] www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/09/26/fed-raises-rate/1426946002/